The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December
The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relatio...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9d88002a673946259b75c9f1ecc136f4 2023-05-15T14:41:24+02:00 The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December Zhihai Zheng Jin Ban Yongsheng Li 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://doaj.org/article/9d88002a673946259b75c9f1ecc136f4 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-424X 2296-424X doi:10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://doaj.org/article/9d88002a673946259b75c9f1ecc136f4 Frontiers in Physics, Vol 9 (2021) The Arctic Oscillation predictability prediction skill blocking Arctic sea ice interaction between stratosphere and troposphere Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 2022-12-31T04:30:35Z The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relationship between the predictability of the model on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation and the phase of AO, with the highest predictability in the negative AO phase and the lowest predictability in the normal AO phase. Moreover, the difference of predictability exists at different lead times. The potential sources of the high predictability in the negative AO phase in the BCC_AGCM2.2 model were further diagnosed. It was found that the differences of predictability on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation also exist in different Arctic sea ice anomalies, and the model performs well in reproducing the response of Arctic sea ice on the AO. The predictability is higher when sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur, and strong SSW events tend to form a negative AO phase distribution in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes both in the observation and model. In addition, the model captured the blocking over the mid-high latitudes well, it may be related to the relatively long duration of the blocking. Changes in the AO will affect the blocking circulations over the mid-high latitudes, which partly explains the high predictability of the model in negative AO phases from the aspect of the internal atmospheric dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Frontiers in Physics 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
The Arctic Oscillation predictability prediction skill blocking Arctic sea ice interaction between stratosphere and troposphere Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
The Arctic Oscillation predictability prediction skill blocking Arctic sea ice interaction between stratosphere and troposphere Physics QC1-999 Zhihai Zheng Jin Ban Yongsheng Li The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
topic_facet |
The Arctic Oscillation predictability prediction skill blocking Arctic sea ice interaction between stratosphere and troposphere Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relationship between the predictability of the model on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation and the phase of AO, with the highest predictability in the negative AO phase and the lowest predictability in the normal AO phase. Moreover, the difference of predictability exists at different lead times. The potential sources of the high predictability in the negative AO phase in the BCC_AGCM2.2 model were further diagnosed. It was found that the differences of predictability on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation also exist in different Arctic sea ice anomalies, and the model performs well in reproducing the response of Arctic sea ice on the AO. The predictability is higher when sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur, and strong SSW events tend to form a negative AO phase distribution in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes both in the observation and model. In addition, the model captured the blocking over the mid-high latitudes well, it may be related to the relatively long duration of the blocking. Changes in the AO will affect the blocking circulations over the mid-high latitudes, which partly explains the high predictability of the model in negative AO phases from the aspect of the internal atmospheric dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhihai Zheng Jin Ban Yongsheng Li |
author_facet |
Zhihai Zheng Jin Ban Yongsheng Li |
author_sort |
Zhihai Zheng |
title |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_short |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_full |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_fullStr |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_sort |
effect of the arctic oscillation on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in december |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://doaj.org/article/9d88002a673946259b75c9f1ecc136f4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Physics, Vol 9 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-424X 2296-424X doi:10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://doaj.org/article/9d88002a673946259b75c9f1ecc136f4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Physics |
container_volume |
9 |
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1766313180799172608 |