What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?
Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheri...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9d6a485d7da04fb3a40ab8040ada355c 2023-05-15T13:43:57+02:00 What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? P. A. Newman L. D. Oman A. R. Douglass E. L. Fleming S. M. Frith M. M. Hurwitz S. R. Kawa C. H. Jackman N. A. Krotkov E. R. Nash J. E. Nielsen S. Pawson R. S. Stolarski G. J. M. Velders 2009-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/9d6a485d7da04fb3a40ab8040ada355c EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2113/2009/acp-9-2113-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/9d6a485d7da04fb3a40ab8040ada355c Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2113-2128 (2009) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2009 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T11:57:50Z Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Molina ENVELOPE(-62.017,-62.017,-64.017,-64.017) Rowland ENVELOPE(161.700,161.700,-77.213,-77.213) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 P. A. Newman L. D. Oman A. R. Douglass E. L. Fleming S. M. Frith M. M. Hurwitz S. R. Kawa C. H. Jackman N. A. Krotkov E. R. Nash J. E. Nielsen S. Pawson R. S. Stolarski G. J. M. Velders What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. A. Newman L. D. Oman A. R. Douglass E. L. Fleming S. M. Frith M. M. Hurwitz S. R. Kawa C. H. Jackman N. A. Krotkov E. R. Nash J. E. Nielsen S. Pawson R. S. Stolarski G. J. M. Velders |
author_facet |
P. A. Newman L. D. Oman A. R. Douglass E. L. Fleming S. M. Frith M. M. Hurwitz S. R. Kawa C. H. Jackman N. A. Krotkov E. R. Nash J. E. Nielsen S. Pawson R. S. Stolarski G. J. M. Velders |
author_sort |
P. A. Newman |
title |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
title_short |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
title_full |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
title_fullStr |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
title_full_unstemmed |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
title_sort |
what would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (cfcs) had not been regulated? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/9d6a485d7da04fb3a40ab8040ada355c |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.017,-62.017,-64.017,-64.017) ENVELOPE(161.700,161.700,-77.213,-77.213) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Molina Rowland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Molina Rowland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2113-2128 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2113/2009/acp-9-2113-2009.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/9d6a485d7da04fb3a40ab8040ada355c |
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1766195284958773248 |