On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts
Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of a general relationship between sea temperature and recruitment of cod stocks across the North Atlantic, as well as between recruitment and the size of the spawning population. In the North Sea, cod year-class strength is inversely related to sea surface...
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Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
2003
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9d133a83f60f4ddcaaeca0401fd518c6 2023-05-15T16:19:23+02:00 On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts Benjamin Planque Clive J. Fox Mark A. Saunders Paul Rockett 2003-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 https://doaj.org/article/9d133a83f60f4ddcaaeca0401fd518c6 EN eng Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas http://scientiamarina.revistas.csic.es/index.php/scientiamarina/article/view/521 https://doaj.org/toc/0214-8358 https://doaj.org/toc/1886-8134 0214-8358 1886-8134 doi:10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 https://doaj.org/article/9d133a83f60f4ddcaaeca0401fd518c6 Scientia Marina, Vol 67, Iss S1, Pp 211-218 (2003) north sea cod recruitment sea surface temperature statistical forecasting Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling SH1-691 article 2003 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 2022-12-31T06:05:04Z Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of a general relationship between sea temperature and recruitment of cod stocks across the North Atlantic, as well as between recruitment and the size of the spawning population. In the North Sea, cod year-class strength is inversely related to sea surface temperature during the first half of the year. This stock is currently at a low level, and the future trajectory of the stock biomass will be strongly influenced by recruitment levels. In the present study we investigate the possible use of observed and modelled sea surface temperature (SST) to increase the accuracy and/or time horizon of recruitment forecasts for this stock. We show that the statistical model developed for forecasting spring temperature has good skill (35% skill, with a standard error of 0.36°C) when predictions are made in late January. Within the frame of the current fish stock assessment working group we incorporate SST observations and January forecasts and simulate short-term recruitment projections. The resulting model accounts for a greater fraction of the variance in recruitment (42%) than that obtained without temperature (17%). In operational mode, the model allows forecasting 1.5 years in advance but the accuracy of predicted recruitment remains low. This example indicates that we have not yet reached a point where environmental information can be used with great benefit for the management of North Sea cod. However, a similar strategy may yield greater benefits if developed for other stocks for which environmental effects are better understood and/or account for a larger fraction of the variability in recruitment, for species with a shorter generation time and species for which recruitment forecast is critical to management (e.g. anchovy), and in areas where environmental prediction capabilities may be greater either in accuracy or in lead time. Article in Journal/Newspaper Gadus morhua North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Scientia Marina 67 S1 211 218 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
north sea cod recruitment sea surface temperature statistical forecasting Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling SH1-691 |
spellingShingle |
north sea cod recruitment sea surface temperature statistical forecasting Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling SH1-691 Benjamin Planque Clive J. Fox Mark A. Saunders Paul Rockett On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
topic_facet |
north sea cod recruitment sea surface temperature statistical forecasting Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling SH1-691 |
description |
Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of a general relationship between sea temperature and recruitment of cod stocks across the North Atlantic, as well as between recruitment and the size of the spawning population. In the North Sea, cod year-class strength is inversely related to sea surface temperature during the first half of the year. This stock is currently at a low level, and the future trajectory of the stock biomass will be strongly influenced by recruitment levels. In the present study we investigate the possible use of observed and modelled sea surface temperature (SST) to increase the accuracy and/or time horizon of recruitment forecasts for this stock. We show that the statistical model developed for forecasting spring temperature has good skill (35% skill, with a standard error of 0.36°C) when predictions are made in late January. Within the frame of the current fish stock assessment working group we incorporate SST observations and January forecasts and simulate short-term recruitment projections. The resulting model accounts for a greater fraction of the variance in recruitment (42%) than that obtained without temperature (17%). In operational mode, the model allows forecasting 1.5 years in advance but the accuracy of predicted recruitment remains low. This example indicates that we have not yet reached a point where environmental information can be used with great benefit for the management of North Sea cod. However, a similar strategy may yield greater benefits if developed for other stocks for which environmental effects are better understood and/or account for a larger fraction of the variability in recruitment, for species with a shorter generation time and species for which recruitment forecast is critical to management (e.g. anchovy), and in areas where environmental prediction capabilities may be greater either in accuracy or in lead time. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benjamin Planque Clive J. Fox Mark A. Saunders Paul Rockett |
author_facet |
Benjamin Planque Clive J. Fox Mark A. Saunders Paul Rockett |
author_sort |
Benjamin Planque |
title |
On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
title_short |
On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
title_full |
On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
title_fullStr |
On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
title_sort |
on the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of north sea cod (gadus morhua) using statistical temperature forecasts |
publisher |
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 https://doaj.org/article/9d133a83f60f4ddcaaeca0401fd518c6 |
genre |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
op_source |
Scientia Marina, Vol 67, Iss S1, Pp 211-218 (2003) |
op_relation |
http://scientiamarina.revistas.csic.es/index.php/scientiamarina/article/view/521 https://doaj.org/toc/0214-8358 https://doaj.org/toc/1886-8134 0214-8358 1886-8134 doi:10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 https://doaj.org/article/9d133a83f60f4ddcaaeca0401fd518c6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211 |
container_title |
Scientia Marina |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
S1 |
container_start_page |
211 |
op_container_end_page |
218 |
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1766005765112332288 |