The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms

• Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• Main Authors: L. C. Dawkins, D. B. Stephenson, J. F. Lockwood, P. E. Maisey
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2016
• Subjects: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; TD1-1066; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation; G; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Geology; QE1-996.5; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016; https://doaj.org/article/9ce8df24c7dc4ab5a3786bd3fd8489a8

A decline in damaging European windstorms has led to a reduction in insured losses in the 21st century. This decline is explored by identifying a damaging windstorm characteristic and investigating how and why this characteristic has changed in recent years. This novel exploration is based on 6103 high-resolution model-generated historical footprints (1979–2014), representing the whole European domain. The footprint of a windstorm is defined as the maximum wind gust speed to occur at a set of spatial locations over the duration of the storm. The area of the footprint exceeding 20 ms −1 over land, A 20 , is shown to be a good predictor of windstorm damage. This damaging characteristic has decreased in the 21st century, due to a statistically significant decrease in the relative frequency of windstorms exceeding 20 ms −1 in north-western Europe, although an increase is observed in southern Europe. This is explained by a decrease in the quantiles of the footprint wind gust speed distribution above approximately 18 ms −1 at locations in this region. In addition, an increased variability in the number of windstorm events is observed in the 21st century. Much of the change in A 20 is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The correlation between winter total A 20 and winter-averaged mean sea-level pressure resembles the NAO pattern, shifted eastwards over Europe, and a strong positive relationship (correlation of 0.715) exists between winter total A 20 and winter-averaged NAO. The shifted correlation pattern, however, suggests that other modes of variability may also play a role in the variation in windstorm losses.