Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland
Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our socie...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9bd69bfc74414462b686114f8085c252 2023-05-15T17:55:41+02:00 Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland A. Marmy J. Rajczak R. Delaloye C. Hilbich M. Hoelzle S. Kotlarski C. Lambiel J. Noetzli M. Phillips N. Salzmann B. Staub C. Hauck 2016-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://doaj.org/article/9bd69bfc74414462b686114f8085c252 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/2693/2016/tc-10-2693-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://doaj.org/article/9bd69bfc74414462b686114f8085c252 The Cryosphere, Vol 10, Iss 6, Pp 2693-2719 (2016) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 2022-12-31T14:27:35Z Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 10 6 2693 2719 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. Marmy J. Rajczak R. Delaloye C. Hilbich M. Hoelzle S. Kotlarski C. Lambiel J. Noetzli M. Phillips N. Salzmann B. Staub C. Hauck Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Marmy J. Rajczak R. Delaloye C. Hilbich M. Hoelzle S. Kotlarski C. Lambiel J. Noetzli M. Phillips N. Salzmann B. Staub C. Hauck |
author_facet |
A. Marmy J. Rajczak R. Delaloye C. Hilbich M. Hoelzle S. Kotlarski C. Lambiel J. Noetzli M. Phillips N. Salzmann B. Staub C. Hauck |
author_sort |
A. Marmy |
title |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_short |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_full |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_fullStr |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_sort |
semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in switzerland |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://doaj.org/article/9bd69bfc74414462b686114f8085c252 |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 10, Iss 6, Pp 2693-2719 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/2693/2016/tc-10-2693-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://doaj.org/article/9bd69bfc74414462b686114f8085c252 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2693 |
op_container_end_page |
2719 |
_version_ |
1766163657975136256 |