Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge
Calving-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Ice front retreat of marine-terminating glaciers may, for example, lead to a loss in resistive stress, which ultimately results in glacier acceleration and thinning. Over the past decade, it has been suggested that...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 https://doaj.org/article/9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 2023-05-15T16:21:12+02:00 Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge M. Morlighem M. Wood H. Seroussi Y. Choi E. Rignot 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 https://doaj.org/article/9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/723/2019/tc-13-723-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 723-734 (2019) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 2022-12-30T20:46:05Z Calving-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Ice front retreat of marine-terminating glaciers may, for example, lead to a loss in resistive stress, which ultimately results in glacier acceleration and thinning. Over the past decade, it has been suggested that such retreats may be triggered by warm and salty Atlantic Water, which is typically found at a depth below 200–300 m. An increase in subglacial water discharge at glacier ice fronts due to enhanced surface runoff may also be responsible for an intensification of undercutting and calving. An increase in ocean thermal forcing or subglacial discharge therefore has the potential to destabilize marine-terminating glaciers along the coast of Greenland. It remains unclear which glaciers are currently stable but may retreat in the future and how far inland and how fast they will retreat. Here, we quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers along the northwest coast of Greenland (from 72.5 to 76 ∘ N) to ocean forcing and subglacial discharge using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We rely on a parameterization of undercutting based on ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge and use ocean temperature and salinity from high-resolution ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) simulations at the fjord mouth to constrain the ocean thermal forcing. The ice flow model includes a calving law based on a tensile von Mises criterion. We find that some glaciers, such as Dietrichson Gletscher or Alison Glacier, are sensitive to small increases in ocean thermal forcing, while others, such as Illullip Sermia or Cornell Gletscher, are remarkably stable, even in a +3 ∘ C ocean warming scenario. Under the most intense experiment, we find that Hayes Gletscher retreats by more than 50 km inland by 2100 into a deep trough, and its velocity increases by a factor of 3 over only 23 years. The model confirms that ice–ocean interactions can trigger extensive and rapid glacier retreat, but ... Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Hayes ENVELOPE(-64.167,-64.167,-66.833,-66.833) Cornell Gletscher ENVELOPE(-56.000,-56.000,74.233,74.233) Dietrichson Gletscher ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,75.467,75.467) Hayes Gletscher ENVELOPE(-57.083,-57.083,74.950,74.950) Illullip Sermia ENVELOPE(-56.000,-56.000,74.400,74.400) The Cryosphere 13 2 723 734 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Morlighem M. Wood H. Seroussi Y. Choi E. Rignot Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Calving-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Ice front retreat of marine-terminating glaciers may, for example, lead to a loss in resistive stress, which ultimately results in glacier acceleration and thinning. Over the past decade, it has been suggested that such retreats may be triggered by warm and salty Atlantic Water, which is typically found at a depth below 200–300 m. An increase in subglacial water discharge at glacier ice fronts due to enhanced surface runoff may also be responsible for an intensification of undercutting and calving. An increase in ocean thermal forcing or subglacial discharge therefore has the potential to destabilize marine-terminating glaciers along the coast of Greenland. It remains unclear which glaciers are currently stable but may retreat in the future and how far inland and how fast they will retreat. Here, we quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers along the northwest coast of Greenland (from 72.5 to 76 ∘ N) to ocean forcing and subglacial discharge using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We rely on a parameterization of undercutting based on ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge and use ocean temperature and salinity from high-resolution ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) simulations at the fjord mouth to constrain the ocean thermal forcing. The ice flow model includes a calving law based on a tensile von Mises criterion. We find that some glaciers, such as Dietrichson Gletscher or Alison Glacier, are sensitive to small increases in ocean thermal forcing, while others, such as Illullip Sermia or Cornell Gletscher, are remarkably stable, even in a +3 ∘ C ocean warming scenario. Under the most intense experiment, we find that Hayes Gletscher retreats by more than 50 km inland by 2100 into a deep trough, and its velocity increases by a factor of 3 over only 23 years. The model confirms that ice–ocean interactions can trigger extensive and rapid glacier retreat, but ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Morlighem M. Wood H. Seroussi Y. Choi E. Rignot |
author_facet |
M. Morlighem M. Wood H. Seroussi Y. Choi E. Rignot |
author_sort |
M. Morlighem |
title |
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
title_short |
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
title_full |
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
title_sort |
modeling the response of northwest greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 https://doaj.org/article/9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.167,-64.167,-66.833,-66.833) ENVELOPE(-56.000,-56.000,74.233,74.233) ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,75.467,75.467) ENVELOPE(-57.083,-57.083,74.950,74.950) ENVELOPE(-56.000,-56.000,74.400,74.400) |
geographic |
Greenland Hayes Cornell Gletscher Dietrichson Gletscher Hayes Gletscher Illullip Sermia |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Hayes Cornell Gletscher Dietrichson Gletscher Hayes Gletscher Illullip Sermia |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 723-734 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/723/2019/tc-13-723-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9b66c0fc80d54fa791bcda2c3b459090 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
723 |
op_container_end_page |
734 |
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1766009212597436416 |