What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing
Arctic landfast ice extent and duration are examined from observations, ice assimilations, ocean reanalyses and coupled models. From observations and assimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions last more than 5 months the first-year ice typically grows to more than 2 m and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9ac2a2cc574e4348ba87d345a190ef32 2023-05-15T14:28:56+02:00 What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing F. Laliberté S. E. L. Howell J.-F. Lemieux F. Dupont J. Lei 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 https://doaj.org/article/9ac2a2cc574e4348ba87d345a190ef32 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3577/2018/tc-12-3577-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9ac2a2cc574e4348ba87d345a190ef32 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3577-3588 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 2022-12-31T04:14:34Z Arctic landfast ice extent and duration are examined from observations, ice assimilations, ocean reanalyses and coupled models. From observations and assimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions last more than 5 months the first-year ice typically grows to more than 2 m and is rarely less than 1 m. The observed spatial distribution of landfast ice closely matches assimilation products but less so for ocean reanalyses and coupled models. Although models generally struggle to represent the landfast ice necessary to emulate the observed import/export of sea ice in regions favourable to landfast ice conditions, some do exhibit both a realistic climatology and a realistic decline of landfast ice extent under an anthropogenic forcing scenario. In these more realistic simulations, projections show that an extensive landfast ice cover should remain for at least 5 months of the year, well into the end of the 21st century. This is in stark contrast with the simulations that have an unrealistic emulation of landfast ice conditions. In these simulations, slow and packed ice conditions shrink markedly over the same period. In all simulations and in areas with landfast ice that lasts more than 5 months, the end-of-winter sea ice thickness remains between 1 and 2 m, well beyond the second half of the century. It is concluded that in the current generation of climate models, projections of winter sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Laptev Sea are overly sensitive to the representation of landfast ice conditions and that ongoing development in landfast ice parameterization will likely better constrain these projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Archipelago Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago Laptev Sea The Cryosphere 12 11 3577 3588 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 F. Laliberté S. E. L. Howell J.-F. Lemieux F. Dupont J. Lei What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Arctic landfast ice extent and duration are examined from observations, ice assimilations, ocean reanalyses and coupled models. From observations and assimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions last more than 5 months the first-year ice typically grows to more than 2 m and is rarely less than 1 m. The observed spatial distribution of landfast ice closely matches assimilation products but less so for ocean reanalyses and coupled models. Although models generally struggle to represent the landfast ice necessary to emulate the observed import/export of sea ice in regions favourable to landfast ice conditions, some do exhibit both a realistic climatology and a realistic decline of landfast ice extent under an anthropogenic forcing scenario. In these more realistic simulations, projections show that an extensive landfast ice cover should remain for at least 5 months of the year, well into the end of the 21st century. This is in stark contrast with the simulations that have an unrealistic emulation of landfast ice conditions. In these simulations, slow and packed ice conditions shrink markedly over the same period. In all simulations and in areas with landfast ice that lasts more than 5 months, the end-of-winter sea ice thickness remains between 1 and 2 m, well beyond the second half of the century. It is concluded that in the current generation of climate models, projections of winter sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Laptev Sea are overly sensitive to the representation of landfast ice conditions and that ongoing development in landfast ice parameterization will likely better constrain these projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
F. Laliberté S. E. L. Howell J.-F. Lemieux F. Dupont J. Lei |
author_facet |
F. Laliberté S. E. L. Howell J.-F. Lemieux F. Dupont J. Lei |
author_sort |
F. Laliberté |
title |
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
title_short |
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
title_full |
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
title_fullStr |
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
title_full_unstemmed |
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
title_sort |
what historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 https://doaj.org/article/9ac2a2cc574e4348ba87d345a190ef32 |
geographic |
Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago Laptev Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago Laptev Sea |
genre |
Arctic Archipelago Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Archipelago Arctic Canadian Arctic Archipelago laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3577-3588 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3577/2018/tc-12-3577-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9ac2a2cc574e4348ba87d345a190ef32 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3577 |
op_container_end_page |
3588 |
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1766303055655993344 |