Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs
Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9a92951de45047b7a66c5d536161f25a 2023-05-15T14:33:28+02:00 Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs P. J. Hezel T. Fichefet F. Massonnet 2014-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 https://doaj.org/article/9a92951de45047b7a66c5d536161f25a EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1195/2014/tc-8-1195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 https://doaj.org/article/9a92951de45047b7a66c5d536161f25a The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 1195-1204 (2014) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 2022-12-31T09:36:09Z Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all nine models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline after the forcing stabilizes due to continued warming on longer timescales. Based on the analysis of these two scenarios, we suggest that Arctic summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in seven of nine models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and the reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean The Cryosphere 8 4 1195 1204 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 P. J. Hezel T. Fichefet F. Massonnet Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all nine models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline after the forcing stabilizes due to continued warming on longer timescales. Based on the analysis of these two scenarios, we suggest that Arctic summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in seven of nine models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and the reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. J. Hezel T. Fichefet F. Massonnet |
author_facet |
P. J. Hezel T. Fichefet F. Massonnet |
author_sort |
P. J. Hezel |
title |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_short |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_full |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_fullStr |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_sort |
modeled arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in cmip5 extended rcps |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 https://doaj.org/article/9a92951de45047b7a66c5d536161f25a |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 1195-1204 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1195/2014/tc-8-1195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 https://doaj.org/article/9a92951de45047b7a66c5d536161f25a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1195 |
op_container_end_page |
1204 |
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1766306709577400320 |