Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms.
Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived fro...
Published in: | PLoS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 https://doaj.org/article/9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 2023-05-15T14:39:33+02:00 Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. Jingbin Liu Ruizhi Chen Zemin Wang Jiachun An Juha Hyyppä 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 https://doaj.org/article/9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4219753?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 https://doaj.org/article/9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 PLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 11, p e111497 (2014) Medicine R Science Q article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 2022-12-31T00:22:39Z Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8-5.6 TECU for different period sets. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS ONE 9 11 e111497 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Jingbin Liu Ruizhi Chen Zemin Wang Jiachun An Juha Hyyppä Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8-5.6 TECU for different period sets. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jingbin Liu Ruizhi Chen Zemin Wang Jiachun An Juha Hyyppä |
author_facet |
Jingbin Liu Ruizhi Chen Zemin Wang Jiachun An Juha Hyyppä |
author_sort |
Jingbin Liu |
title |
Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
title_short |
Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
title_full |
Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
title_fullStr |
Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term prediction of the Arctic ionospheric TEC based on time-varying periodograms. |
title_sort |
long-term prediction of the arctic ionospheric tec based on time-varying periodograms. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 https://doaj.org/article/9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 11, p e111497 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4219753?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 https://doaj.org/article/9a72ad6554984f1ab186698dac702181 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111497 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
e111497 |
_version_ |
1766311544422924288 |