Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by mete...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9a65c5f98d1e46199d118adb11925142 2024-09-15T17:52:16+00:00 Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming M. A. Rawlins A. V. Karmalkar 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 https://doaj.org/article/9a65c5f98d1e46199d118adb11925142 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1033/2024/tc-18-1033-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9a65c5f98d1e46199d118adb11925142 The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 1033-1052 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:53Z Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin permafrost The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 18 3 1033 1052 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. A. Rawlins A. V. Karmalkar Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. A. Rawlins A. V. Karmalkar |
author_facet |
M. A. Rawlins A. V. Karmalkar |
author_sort |
M. A. Rawlins |
title |
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
title_short |
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
title_full |
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
title_fullStr |
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
title_sort |
regime shifts in arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 https://doaj.org/article/9a65c5f98d1e46199d118adb11925142 |
genre |
Arctic Basin permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 1033-1052 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1033/2024/tc-18-1033-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9a65c5f98d1e46199d118adb11925142 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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18 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1033 |
op_container_end_page |
1052 |
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