Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue.
Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9a5abf1d87124605905348cea96e7366 2023-05-15T15:11:31+02:00 Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. Alisa Aliaga-Samanez Marina Cobos-Mayo Raimundo Real Marina Segura David Romero Julia E Fa Jesús Olivero 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/article/9a5abf1d87124605905348cea96e7366 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/article/9a5abf1d87124605905348cea96e7366 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009496 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 2022-12-31T14:48:54Z Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the fine-scale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to the most recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoring transmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 6 e0009496 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Alisa Aliaga-Samanez Marina Cobos-Mayo Raimundo Real Marina Segura David Romero Julia E Fa Jesús Olivero Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the fine-scale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to the most recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoring transmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alisa Aliaga-Samanez Marina Cobos-Mayo Raimundo Real Marina Segura David Romero Julia E Fa Jesús Olivero |
author_facet |
Alisa Aliaga-Samanez Marina Cobos-Mayo Raimundo Real Marina Segura David Romero Julia E Fa Jesús Olivero |
author_sort |
Alisa Aliaga-Samanez |
title |
Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
title_short |
Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
title_full |
Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
title_fullStr |
Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
title_sort |
worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/article/9a5abf1d87124605905348cea96e7366 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009496 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 https://doaj.org/article/9a5abf1d87124605905348cea96e7366 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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15 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0009496 |
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