The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions
Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core d...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:99fb5380158a4b058b0e05adebb7c831 2024-09-09T20:03:21+00:00 The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions M. Drüke W. Lucht W. von Bloh S. Petri B. Sakschewski A. Tobian S. Loriani S. Schaphoff G. Feulner K. Thonicke 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 https://doaj.org/article/99fb5380158a4b058b0e05adebb7c831 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/467/2024/esd-15-467-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/99fb5380158a4b058b0e05adebb7c831 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 467-483 (2024) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:32Z Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between the land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 Pg C, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 Pg C. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 15 2 467 483 |
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Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
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Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 M. Drüke W. Lucht W. von Bloh S. Petri B. Sakschewski A. Tobian S. Loriani S. Schaphoff G. Feulner K. Thonicke The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between the land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 Pg C, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 Pg C. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Drüke W. Lucht W. von Bloh S. Petri B. Sakschewski A. Tobian S. Loriani S. Schaphoff G. Feulner K. Thonicke |
author_facet |
M. Drüke W. Lucht W. von Bloh S. Petri B. Sakschewski A. Tobian S. Loriani S. Schaphoff G. Feulner K. Thonicke |
author_sort |
M. Drüke |
title |
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
title_short |
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
title_full |
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
title_fullStr |
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
title_full_unstemmed |
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
title_sort |
long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 https://doaj.org/article/99fb5380158a4b058b0e05adebb7c831 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 467-483 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/467/2024/esd-15-467-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/99fb5380158a4b058b0e05adebb7c831 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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15 |
container_issue |
2 |
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467 |
op_container_end_page |
483 |
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