Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations
Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satell...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://doaj.org/article/99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 2023-09-05T13:16:32+02:00 Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations Vyacheslav C Khon Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://doaj.org/article/99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 2, p 024010 (2017) Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 12 2 024010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Vyacheslav C Khon Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
topic_facet |
Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vyacheslav C Khon Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov |
author_facet |
Vyacheslav C Khon Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov |
author_sort |
Vyacheslav C Khon |
title |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
transit navigation through northern sea route from satellite data and cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://doaj.org/article/99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 2, p 024010 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/99e987341d094c2299ee11f08a423291 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024010 |
_version_ |
1776198072508874752 |