Warming of Atlantic Water in two west Spitsbergen fjords over the last century (1912–2009)

• Published in: Polar Research
• Main Authors: Alexey K. Pavlov, Vigdis Tverberg, Boris V. Ivanov, Frank Nilsen, Stig Falk-Petersen, Mats A. Granskog
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Norwegian Polar Institute 2013
• Subjects: Temperature; West Spitsbergen Current; Atlantic Water; ERA reanalysis; warming; Svalbard; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Oceanography; GC1-1581; Isfjord*; Isfjorden; Polar Research; Sea ice; Spitsbergen
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v32i0.11206; https://doaj.org/article/995af23ec7ee4935905a8f5384aeb9e4

The recently observed warming of west Spitsbergen fjords has led to anomalous sea-ice conditions and has implications for the marine ecosystem. We investigated long-term trends of maximum temperature of Atlantic Water (AW) in two west Spitsbergen fjords. The data set is composed of more than 400 oceanographic stations for Isfjorden and Gr&#x00F8;nfjorden (78.1&#x00B0;N), spanning from 1876 to 2009. Trends throughout the last century (1912&#x2013;2009) indicate an increase of 1.9&#x00B0;C and 2.1&#x00B0;C in the maximum temperature during autumn for Isfjorden and Gr&#x00F8;nfjorden, respectively. A recent warming event in the beginning of the 21st century is found to be more than 1&#x00B0;C higher than the second warmest period in the time series. Mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim data sets produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and mean temperature in the core of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) at the S&#x00F8;rkapp Section along 76.3&#x00B0;N were used to explain the variability of the maximum temperature. A correlation analysis confirmed previous findings, showing that variability in the oceanography of the fjords can be explained mainly by two external factors: AW temperature variability in the WSC and regional patterns of the wind stress field. To take both processes into consideration, a multiple regression model accounting for temperature in the WSC core and MSLP over the area was developed. The predicted time series shows a reasonable agreement with observed maxima temperature in Isfjorden for the period 1977&#x2013;2009 (N=24), with a statistically significant multiple correlation coefficient of 0.60 (R2=0.36) at P<0.05.