An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’

• Published in: Sustainability
• Main Authors: Nick King, Aled Jones
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021
• Subjects: sociopolitical complexity; collapse; de-complexification; lifeboats; carrying capacity; resilience; Environmental effects of industries and plants; TD194-195; Renewable energy sources; TJ807-830; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; New Zealand; Iceland
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158161; https://doaj.org/article/995a955abca8446cbf12624d06369b8b

Human civilisation has undergone a continuous trajectory of rising sociopolitical complexity since its inception; a trend which has undergone a dramatic recent acceleration. This phenomenon has resulted in increasingly severe perturbation of the Earth System, manifesting recently as global-scale effects such as climate change. These effects create an increased risk of a global ‘de-complexification’ (collapse) event in which complexity could undergo widespread reversal. ‘Nodes of persisting complexity’ are geographical locations which may experience lesser effects from ‘de-complexification’ due to having ‘favourable starting conditions’ that may allow the retention of a degree of complexity. A shortlist of nations (New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ireland) were identified and qualitatively analysed in detail to ascertain their potential to form ‘nodes of persisting complexity’ (New Zealand is identified as having the greatest potential). The analysis outputs are applied to identify insights for enhancing resilience to ‘de-complexification’.