Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring consider...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:99268eb1b58b4ccc9a429327a77e5b77 2023-09-05T13:16:53+02:00 Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 V A Semenov M Latif 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://doaj.org/article/99268eb1b58b4ccc9a429327a77e5b77 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/99268eb1b58b4ccc9a429327a77e5b77 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 5, p 054020 (2015) Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 2023-08-13T00:37:54Z The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barents Sea Environmental Research Letters 10 5 054020 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 V A Semenov M Latif Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
V A Semenov M Latif |
author_facet |
V A Semenov M Latif |
author_sort |
V A Semenov |
title |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_short |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_sort |
nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://doaj.org/article/99268eb1b58b4ccc9a429327a77e5b77 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 5, p 054020 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/99268eb1b58b4ccc9a429327a77e5b77 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054020 |
_version_ |
1776198309341298688 |