The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks
The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive developmen...
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Murmansk State Technical University
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9737045c44284faf8ed1657b1ab34fd7 2023-05-15T14:53:00+02:00 The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks Moninets S. Yu. Bazhenova A. I. 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 https://doaj.org/article/9737045c44284faf8ed1657b1ab34fd7 RU rus Murmansk State Technical University http://vestnik.mstu.edu.ru/show-eng.shtml?art=1979 https://doaj.org/toc/1560-9278 https://doaj.org/toc/1997-4736 doi:10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 1560-9278 1997-4736 https://doaj.org/article/9737045c44284faf8ed1657b1ab34fd7 Vestnik MGTU, Vol 21, Iss 4, Pp 558-565 (2018) Northern Sea Route icing navigation safety of marine transport risks geographic information system (GIS) General Works A article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 2022-12-31T03:35:06Z The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive development of the territory, and even carries a certain danger. This problem is especially acute in the eastern sector of the Arctic and even in the Far East as regions with underdeveloped infrastructure. Accidents associated with ice conditions are typical for the northern latitudes, the most dangerous ones are icing of ships. Owing to the strong remoteness of the ports from each other, the response time in an emergency situation is difficult to bring to the normative index. Creating a dense network of rescue teams will require unjustifiably large financial investments. Therefore, a risk assessment is proposed as a basic measure to improve the existing emergency response system. The necessity of improving methods for risk assessment taking into account spatial and temporal changes has been substantiated. An analysis of factors that largely determine the level of risk has been carried out. Some examples of risk-generating factors have been given. The synergistic and neutralizing effects of risk-forming factors have been considered. The linking of risks to a certain locality has been justified. According to media reports the accident of the Vostok trawler occurred in January 2018 in the Japan Sea has been analyzed. Criteria and boundary conditions of modeling have been singled out. Maps of the probability of icing have been constructed for the accident time. The risk assessment for the accident has been carried out using computer weather models. The risk distribution maps have been constructed. Conclusions have been drawn about the applicability of the approach and the need for its further improvement. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Vestnik MGTU 21 4 558 565 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
Russian |
topic |
Northern Sea Route icing navigation safety of marine transport risks geographic information system (GIS) General Works A |
spellingShingle |
Northern Sea Route icing navigation safety of marine transport risks geographic information system (GIS) General Works A Moninets S. Yu. Bazhenova A. I. The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
topic_facet |
Northern Sea Route icing navigation safety of marine transport risks geographic information system (GIS) General Works A |
description |
The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive development of the territory, and even carries a certain danger. This problem is especially acute in the eastern sector of the Arctic and even in the Far East as regions with underdeveloped infrastructure. Accidents associated with ice conditions are typical for the northern latitudes, the most dangerous ones are icing of ships. Owing to the strong remoteness of the ports from each other, the response time in an emergency situation is difficult to bring to the normative index. Creating a dense network of rescue teams will require unjustifiably large financial investments. Therefore, a risk assessment is proposed as a basic measure to improve the existing emergency response system. The necessity of improving methods for risk assessment taking into account spatial and temporal changes has been substantiated. An analysis of factors that largely determine the level of risk has been carried out. Some examples of risk-generating factors have been given. The synergistic and neutralizing effects of risk-forming factors have been considered. The linking of risks to a certain locality has been justified. According to media reports the accident of the Vostok trawler occurred in January 2018 in the Japan Sea has been analyzed. Criteria and boundary conditions of modeling have been singled out. Maps of the probability of icing have been constructed for the accident time. The risk assessment for the accident has been carried out using computer weather models. The risk distribution maps have been constructed. Conclusions have been drawn about the applicability of the approach and the need for its further improvement. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Moninets S. Yu. Bazhenova A. I. |
author_facet |
Moninets S. Yu. Bazhenova A. I. |
author_sort |
Moninets S. Yu. |
title |
The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
title_short |
The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
title_full |
The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
title_fullStr |
The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
title_full_unstemmed |
The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks |
title_sort |
safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: forecasting of risks |
publisher |
Murmansk State Technical University |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 https://doaj.org/article/9737045c44284faf8ed1657b1ab34fd7 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route |
op_source |
Vestnik MGTU, Vol 21, Iss 4, Pp 558-565 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://vestnik.mstu.edu.ru/show-eng.shtml?art=1979 https://doaj.org/toc/1560-9278 https://doaj.org/toc/1997-4736 doi:10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 1560-9278 1997-4736 https://doaj.org/article/9737045c44284faf8ed1657b1ab34fd7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565 |
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