NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5 2023-05-15T17:28:32+02:00 NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 2022-12-31T05:21:22Z Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy |
author_facet |
Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy |
author_sort |
Jeremy M. Klavans |
title |
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
title_short |
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
title_full |
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
title_fullStr |
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
title_full_unstemmed |
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
title_sort |
nao predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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4 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766121274283655168 |