Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system
Sea ice information has traditionally been associated with Manual Ice Charts, however the demand for accurate forecasts is increasing. This study presents an improved operational forecast system for the Arctic sea ice focusing on the Greenlandic waters. In addition, we present different observationa...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 https://doaj.org/article/968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e 2023-05-15T15:16:28+02:00 Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system Leandro Ponsoni Mads Hvid Ribergaard Pia Nielsen-Englyst Tore Wulf Jørgen Buus-Hinkler Matilde Brandt Kreiner Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 https://doaj.org/article/968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 https://doaj.org/article/968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) Greenland sea ice conditions sea ice edge forecast operational system ocean modelling Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 2023-02-05T01:30:37Z Sea ice information has traditionally been associated with Manual Ice Charts, however the demand for accurate forecasts is increasing. This study presents an improved operational forecast system for the Arctic sea ice focusing on the Greenlandic waters. In addition, we present different observational sea ice products and conduct inter-comparisons. First, a re-analysis forced by ERA5 from 2000 to 2021 is evaluated to ensure that the forecast system is stable over time and to provide statistics for the users. The output is similar to the initial conditions for a forecast. Secondly, the sea ice forecast system is tested and evaluated based on two re-forecasts forced by the high resolution ECMWF-HRES forecast for the period from January 2019 to September 2021. Both the re-analysis and the re-forecasts include assimilation of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. We validate the re-analysis and the re-forecast systems for sea ice concentration against different remotely sensed observational products by computing the Integrated Ice Edge Error metric at the initial conditions of each system. The results reveal that the re-analysis and the re-forecast perform well. However, the summertime retreat of sea ice near the western Greenlandic coast seems to be delayed a few days compared with the observations. Importantly, part of the bias associated with the model representation of the sea ice edge is associated with the observational errors due to limitations in the passive microwave product in summertime and also near the coast. An inter-comparison of the observational sea ice products suggests that the model performance could be improved by assimilation of sea ice concentrations derived from a newly-developed automated sea ice product. In addition, analysis of persistence shows that the re-forecast has better skill than the persistence forecast for the vast majority of the time. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea greenlandic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Greenland sea ice conditions sea ice edge forecast operational system ocean modelling Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Greenland sea ice conditions sea ice edge forecast operational system ocean modelling Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Leandro Ponsoni Mads Hvid Ribergaard Pia Nielsen-Englyst Tore Wulf Jørgen Buus-Hinkler Matilde Brandt Kreiner Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
topic_facet |
Greenland sea ice conditions sea ice edge forecast operational system ocean modelling Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Sea ice information has traditionally been associated with Manual Ice Charts, however the demand for accurate forecasts is increasing. This study presents an improved operational forecast system for the Arctic sea ice focusing on the Greenlandic waters. In addition, we present different observational sea ice products and conduct inter-comparisons. First, a re-analysis forced by ERA5 from 2000 to 2021 is evaluated to ensure that the forecast system is stable over time and to provide statistics for the users. The output is similar to the initial conditions for a forecast. Secondly, the sea ice forecast system is tested and evaluated based on two re-forecasts forced by the high resolution ECMWF-HRES forecast for the period from January 2019 to September 2021. Both the re-analysis and the re-forecasts include assimilation of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. We validate the re-analysis and the re-forecast systems for sea ice concentration against different remotely sensed observational products by computing the Integrated Ice Edge Error metric at the initial conditions of each system. The results reveal that the re-analysis and the re-forecast perform well. However, the summertime retreat of sea ice near the western Greenlandic coast seems to be delayed a few days compared with the observations. Importantly, part of the bias associated with the model representation of the sea ice edge is associated with the observational errors due to limitations in the passive microwave product in summertime and also near the coast. An inter-comparison of the observational sea ice products suggests that the model performance could be improved by assimilation of sea ice concentrations derived from a newly-developed automated sea ice product. In addition, analysis of persistence shows that the re-forecast has better skill than the persistence forecast for the vast majority of the time. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leandro Ponsoni Mads Hvid Ribergaard Pia Nielsen-Englyst Tore Wulf Jørgen Buus-Hinkler Matilde Brandt Kreiner Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen |
author_facet |
Leandro Ponsoni Mads Hvid Ribergaard Pia Nielsen-Englyst Tore Wulf Jørgen Buus-Hinkler Matilde Brandt Kreiner Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen |
author_sort |
Leandro Ponsoni |
title |
Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
title_short |
Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
title_full |
Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
title_fullStr |
Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
title_sort |
greenlandic sea ice products with a focus on an updated operational forecast system |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 https://doaj.org/article/968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea greenlandic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea greenlandic Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 https://doaj.org/article/968b361d477a418ca24a8d3e1e78173e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.979782 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
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1766346767847129088 |