Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change
Abstract Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐th...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9668196048554c1197893ec5c8f13b67 2024-09-15T18:37:03+00:00 Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change Robert C. J. Wills Yue Dong Cristian Proistosecu Kyle C. Armour David S. Battisti 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/article/9668196048554c1197893ec5c8f13b67 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/article/9668196048554c1197893ec5c8f13b67 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 49, Iss 17, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 2024-08-05T17:49:10Z Abstract Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large‐scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool to tropical‐mean warming, which shows little multi‐decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 49 17 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Robert C. J. Wills Yue Dong Cristian Proistosecu Kyle C. Armour David S. Battisti Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
topic_facet |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large‐scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool to tropical‐mean warming, which shows little multi‐decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Robert C. J. Wills Yue Dong Cristian Proistosecu Kyle C. Armour David S. Battisti |
author_facet |
Robert C. J. Wills Yue Dong Cristian Proistosecu Kyle C. Armour David S. Battisti |
author_sort |
Robert C. J. Wills |
title |
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
title_short |
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
title_full |
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
title_fullStr |
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change |
title_sort |
systematic climate model biases in the large‐scale patterns of recent sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/article/9668196048554c1197893ec5c8f13b67 |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 49, Iss 17, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100011 https://doaj.org/article/9668196048554c1197893ec5c8f13b67 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
17 |
_version_ |
1810481317155962880 |