Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony.
Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the pas...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/article/965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae 2024-09-09T19:26:30+00:00 Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. Mikhail Churakov Christian J Villabona-Arenas Moritz U G Kraemer Henrik Salje Simon Cauchemez 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/article/965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/article/965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e0007012 (2019) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 2024-08-05T17:49:35Z Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years. Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterise the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period. We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence. This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13 4 e0007012 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Mikhail Churakov Christian J Villabona-Arenas Moritz U G Kraemer Henrik Salje Simon Cauchemez Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years. Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterise the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period. We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence. This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mikhail Churakov Christian J Villabona-Arenas Moritz U G Kraemer Henrik Salje Simon Cauchemez |
author_facet |
Mikhail Churakov Christian J Villabona-Arenas Moritz U G Kraemer Henrik Salje Simon Cauchemez |
author_sort |
Mikhail Churakov |
title |
Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in brazil: seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/article/965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e0007012 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 https://doaj.org/article/965f1514664f4c63aa3b873e9206beae |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e0007012 |
_version_ |
1809896096750632960 |