Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska
An understanding of low frequency climatic variations is important for climatologists and planning by the public for informed climate mitigation and adaptation. This study applies recent advances in statistical change-point methodology to the variability of temperatures from seven stations in Alaska...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:963c77bf979d4590b035ab27aabf7261 2023-05-15T15:11:27+02:00 Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska Elena A. Khapalova Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos James E. Overland 2018-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 https://doaj.org/article/963c77bf979d4590b035ab27aabf7261 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-665X 2296-665X doi:10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 https://doaj.org/article/963c77bf979d4590b035ab27aabf7261 Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol 6 (2018) Alaskan temperature changes change-point methods pacific decadal oscillation geopotential height field maps sea level pressure maps Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 2022-12-31T03:32:48Z An understanding of low frequency climatic variations is important for climatologists and planning by the public for informed climate mitigation and adaptation. This study applies recent advances in statistical change-point methodology to the variability of temperatures from seven stations in Alaska and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index for the past decades. We allow for the presence of multiple change-points in any given data series and provide confidence intervals for the identified change-points. We analyze the multiple station data based on season and temperature means and extremes. Physical processes responsible for specific identified temperature changes have been explored through geopotential height field and sea level pressure (SLP) maps. Predominantly, temperature and PDO shifts were observed during winter and spring in the 1940s and the 1970s. The study also identifies anomalous changes in summer that have occurred either in 1960s or in the 1980s. This is a significant deviation from the changes found in the 1970s for winter and spring. Except for a change in the 1940s at King Salmon Airport (KSA) and one in the 1970s at Homer Airport (HA), no other changes were found in fall. Also, there is lack of clear low frequency cyclic variability in the northern North Pacific region. Due to strong interactions and feedbacks, Alaskan sea surface temperature changes identified in this study can have lasting impact upon a number of factors including sea ice, arctic snow cover, atmospheric heat transport, clouds, and others. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Frontiers in Environmental Science 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Alaskan temperature changes change-point methods pacific decadal oscillation geopotential height field maps sea level pressure maps Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Alaskan temperature changes change-point methods pacific decadal oscillation geopotential height field maps sea level pressure maps Environmental sciences GE1-350 Elena A. Khapalova Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos James E. Overland Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
topic_facet |
Alaskan temperature changes change-point methods pacific decadal oscillation geopotential height field maps sea level pressure maps Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
An understanding of low frequency climatic variations is important for climatologists and planning by the public for informed climate mitigation and adaptation. This study applies recent advances in statistical change-point methodology to the variability of temperatures from seven stations in Alaska and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index for the past decades. We allow for the presence of multiple change-points in any given data series and provide confidence intervals for the identified change-points. We analyze the multiple station data based on season and temperature means and extremes. Physical processes responsible for specific identified temperature changes have been explored through geopotential height field and sea level pressure (SLP) maps. Predominantly, temperature and PDO shifts were observed during winter and spring in the 1940s and the 1970s. The study also identifies anomalous changes in summer that have occurred either in 1960s or in the 1980s. This is a significant deviation from the changes found in the 1970s for winter and spring. Except for a change in the 1940s at King Salmon Airport (KSA) and one in the 1970s at Homer Airport (HA), no other changes were found in fall. Also, there is lack of clear low frequency cyclic variability in the northern North Pacific region. Due to strong interactions and feedbacks, Alaskan sea surface temperature changes identified in this study can have lasting impact upon a number of factors including sea ice, arctic snow cover, atmospheric heat transport, clouds, and others. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elena A. Khapalova Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos James E. Overland |
author_facet |
Elena A. Khapalova Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos James E. Overland |
author_sort |
Elena A. Khapalova |
title |
Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
title_short |
Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
title_full |
Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
title_fullStr |
Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska |
title_sort |
assessing change-points in surface air temperature over alaska |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 https://doaj.org/article/963c77bf979d4590b035ab27aabf7261 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Alaska |
op_source |
Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol 6 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-665X 2296-665X doi:10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 https://doaj.org/article/963c77bf979d4590b035ab27aabf7261 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00121 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Environmental Science |
container_volume |
6 |
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1766342297006374912 |