Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering
Abstract The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering me...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:954ca0f45179401fbcf103c79798e49e 2023-10-09T21:49:01+02:00 Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering Chao Yue Svetlana Jevrejeva Ying Qu Liyun Zhao John C. Moore 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 https://doaj.org/article/954ca0f45179401fbcf103c79798e49e EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/954ca0f45179401fbcf103c79798e49e npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 2023-09-17T00:39:32Z Abstract The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Chao Yue Svetlana Jevrejeva Ying Qu Liyun Zhao John C. Moore Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chao Yue Svetlana Jevrejeva Ying Qu Liyun Zhao John C. Moore |
author_facet |
Chao Yue Svetlana Jevrejeva Ying Qu Liyun Zhao John C. Moore |
author_sort |
Chao Yue |
title |
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
title_short |
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
title_full |
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
title_fullStr |
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
title_sort |
thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 https://doaj.org/article/954ca0f45179401fbcf103c79798e49e |
geographic |
Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/954ca0f45179401fbcf103c79798e49e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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6 |
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1 |
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1779312052774371328 |