Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability
Warming across the low Arctic is increasing tundra vegetation productivity and facilitating the expansion of upright shrubs. We modeled the effects of warming on habitat suitability in green alder, dwarf birch, Labrador tea, bog bilberry, and lingonberry and assessed the influence of data type (true...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:94f537a8736d4cb08861dfa1ce8a2d41 2023-05-15T14:14:35+02:00 Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability Jordan H. Seider Trevor C. Lantz Christopher Bone 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 https://doaj.org/article/94f537a8736d4cb08861dfa1ce8a2d41 EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/94f537a8736d4cb08861dfa1ce8a2d41 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 54, Iss 1, Pp 488-506 (2022) Tundra shrubs climate change species distribution modeling pseudo-absence Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 2022-12-30T19:52:16Z Warming across the low Arctic is increasing tundra vegetation productivity and facilitating the expansion of upright shrubs. We modeled the effects of warming on habitat suitability in green alder, dwarf birch, Labrador tea, bog bilberry, and lingonberry and assessed the influence of data type (true absence or pseudo-absence) on species distribution models (SDMs). We generated SDMs using the two absence data types under current (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) climate projections. Our results show that warming leads to range expansion of all shrubs, though responses vary in magnitude and extent, with mean increases in suitability ranging from 0.080 (Labrador tea) to 0.369 (lingonberry) with true absences. Differences in driving variables and suitability projections suggest that physiological and ecological variability between species mediate responses to warming. Between data types, we observed inconsistencies in model performance, suitability projections, and variable importance. Bog bilberry and lingonberry exhibited larger differences in suitability (0.201 and 0.288, respectively), whereas alder showed similar responses (difference of 0.01). These results are important to consider when assessing changes in habitat suitability or identifying environmental or climatic determinants of species’ distributions. We suggest further development of open data repositories, facilitating access to true absence data to support conservation and land use planning. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Climate change Dwarf birch Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 54 1 488 506 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Tundra shrubs climate change species distribution modeling pseudo-absence Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Tundra shrubs climate change species distribution modeling pseudo-absence Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Jordan H. Seider Trevor C. Lantz Christopher Bone Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
topic_facet |
Tundra shrubs climate change species distribution modeling pseudo-absence Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Warming across the low Arctic is increasing tundra vegetation productivity and facilitating the expansion of upright shrubs. We modeled the effects of warming on habitat suitability in green alder, dwarf birch, Labrador tea, bog bilberry, and lingonberry and assessed the influence of data type (true absence or pseudo-absence) on species distribution models (SDMs). We generated SDMs using the two absence data types under current (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) climate projections. Our results show that warming leads to range expansion of all shrubs, though responses vary in magnitude and extent, with mean increases in suitability ranging from 0.080 (Labrador tea) to 0.369 (lingonberry) with true absences. Differences in driving variables and suitability projections suggest that physiological and ecological variability between species mediate responses to warming. Between data types, we observed inconsistencies in model performance, suitability projections, and variable importance. Bog bilberry and lingonberry exhibited larger differences in suitability (0.201 and 0.288, respectively), whereas alder showed similar responses (difference of 0.01). These results are important to consider when assessing changes in habitat suitability or identifying environmental or climatic determinants of species’ distributions. We suggest further development of open data repositories, facilitating access to true absence data to support conservation and land use planning. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jordan H. Seider Trevor C. Lantz Christopher Bone |
author_facet |
Jordan H. Seider Trevor C. Lantz Christopher Bone |
author_sort |
Jordan H. Seider |
title |
Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
title_short |
Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
title_full |
Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
title_fullStr |
Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
title_sort |
tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 https://doaj.org/article/94f537a8736d4cb08861dfa1ce8a2d41 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Climate change Dwarf birch Tundra |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Climate change Dwarf birch Tundra |
op_source |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 54, Iss 1, Pp 488-506 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/94f537a8736d4cb08861dfa1ce8a2d41 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
54 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
488 |
op_container_end_page |
506 |
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1766286971879030784 |