Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century
Long-term changes in air temperature on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan in the 20th–21st centuries are considered. The periods of unambiguous changes in the surface air temperature are determined. It is established that the average winter temperature from the 1970s to 2017, increased in t...
Published in: | Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 https://doaj.org/article/93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 2023-05-15T15:12:48+02:00 Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century Yuri P. Perevedentsev Konstantin M. Shantalinskii Boris G. Sherstukov Alexander A. Nikolaev 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 https://doaj.org/article/93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 BE EN RU bel eng rus Belarusian State University https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/geography/article/view/1136 https://doaj.org/toc/2521-6740 https://doaj.org/toc/2617-3972 2521-6740 2617-3972 doi:10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 https://doaj.org/article/93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 Журнал Белорусского государственного университета: География, геология, Iss 2, Pp 94-107 (2019) air temperature climate change linear trend climate models climatic scenarios Geography (General) G1-922 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 2022-12-31T11:54:13Z Long-term changes in air temperature on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan in the 20th–21st centuries are considered. The periods of unambiguous changes in the surface air temperature are determined. It is established that the average winter temperature from the 1970s to 2017, increased in the Kazan region by more than 3 °C and the average summer temperature increased by about 2 °C over the same period. The contribution of global scale processes to the variability of the temperature of the Kazan region is shown: it was 37 % in winter, 23 % in summer. The correlation analysis of the anomalies of average annual air temperature in Kazan and the series of air temperature anomalies in each node over the continents, as well as the ocean surface temperature in each coordinate node on Earth for 1880 –2017, was performed. Long-distance communications were detected in the temperature field between Kazan and remote regions of the Earth. It is noted that long-period climate fluctuations in Kazan occur synchronously with fluctuations in the high latitudes of Asia and North America, with fluctuations in ocean surface temperature in the Arctic ocean, with fluctuations in air temperature in the Far East, and with fluctuations in ocean surface temperature in the Southern hemisphere in the Indian and Pacific oceans, as well as air temperature in southern Australia. It is suggested that there is a global mechanism that regulates long-term climate fluctuations throughout the Earth in the considered interval of 200 years of observations. According to the CMIP5 project, climatic scenarios were built for Kazan until the end of the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology 2 94 107 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
Belarusian English Russian |
topic |
air temperature climate change linear trend climate models climatic scenarios Geography (General) G1-922 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
air temperature climate change linear trend climate models climatic scenarios Geography (General) G1-922 Geology QE1-996.5 Yuri P. Perevedentsev Konstantin M. Shantalinskii Boris G. Sherstukov Alexander A. Nikolaev Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
topic_facet |
air temperature climate change linear trend climate models climatic scenarios Geography (General) G1-922 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Long-term changes in air temperature on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan in the 20th–21st centuries are considered. The periods of unambiguous changes in the surface air temperature are determined. It is established that the average winter temperature from the 1970s to 2017, increased in the Kazan region by more than 3 °C and the average summer temperature increased by about 2 °C over the same period. The contribution of global scale processes to the variability of the temperature of the Kazan region is shown: it was 37 % in winter, 23 % in summer. The correlation analysis of the anomalies of average annual air temperature in Kazan and the series of air temperature anomalies in each node over the continents, as well as the ocean surface temperature in each coordinate node on Earth for 1880 –2017, was performed. Long-distance communications were detected in the temperature field between Kazan and remote regions of the Earth. It is noted that long-period climate fluctuations in Kazan occur synchronously with fluctuations in the high latitudes of Asia and North America, with fluctuations in ocean surface temperature in the Arctic ocean, with fluctuations in air temperature in the Far East, and with fluctuations in ocean surface temperature in the Southern hemisphere in the Indian and Pacific oceans, as well as air temperature in southern Australia. It is suggested that there is a global mechanism that regulates long-term climate fluctuations throughout the Earth in the considered interval of 200 years of observations. According to the CMIP5 project, climatic scenarios were built for Kazan until the end of the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yuri P. Perevedentsev Konstantin M. Shantalinskii Boris G. Sherstukov Alexander A. Nikolaev |
author_facet |
Yuri P. Perevedentsev Konstantin M. Shantalinskii Boris G. Sherstukov Alexander A. Nikolaev |
author_sort |
Yuri P. Perevedentsev |
title |
Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-period changes of the air temperature in Tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
long-period changes of the air temperature in tatarstan and their forecast till the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
Belarusian State University |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 https://doaj.org/article/93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change |
op_source |
Журнал Белорусского государственного университета: География, геология, Iss 2, Pp 94-107 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/geography/article/view/1136 https://doaj.org/toc/2521-6740 https://doaj.org/toc/2617-3972 2521-6740 2617-3972 doi:10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 https://doaj.org/article/93ee6854b1af4ca5b1e278f61c8eb837 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-94-107 |
container_title |
Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
94 |
op_container_end_page |
107 |
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