Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in he...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664 2023-05-15T15:10:16+02:00 Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009581 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 2022-12-31T05:20:32Z A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 7 e0009581 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet |
author_facet |
Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet |
author_sort |
Susannah Gold |
title |
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
title_short |
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
title_full |
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
title_sort |
modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009581 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e0009581 |
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1766341307098202112 |