Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958
A recently developed technique for deducing tropical cyclone activity from global reanalyses and climate models is applied to a reanalysis of the global atmosphere during the period 1908-1958. This reanalysis assimilates only sea surface temperature, sea ice, and surface pressure observations, which...
Published in: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
---|---|
Main Author: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2010
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 https://doaj.org/article/93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 2023-05-15T17:35:48+02:00 Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 Kerry Emanuel 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 https://doaj.org/article/93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 EN eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://james.agu.org/index.php/JAMES/article/view/v2n1 https://doaj.org/toc/1942-2466 doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 1942-2466 https://doaj.org/article/93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 2, Pp Art. # 1-12 pp. (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2010 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 2022-12-31T00:01:26Z A recently developed technique for deducing tropical cyclone activity from global reanalyses and climate models is applied to a reanalysis of the global atmosphere during the period 1908-1958. This reanalysis assimilates only sea surface temperature, sea ice, and surface pressure observations, which are relatively homogeneous over the period. The downscaling technique has been shown to produce results in good agreement with observations of tropical cyclones when driven by reanalyses over the period 1980-2006, a period when global tropical cyclone frequency was robustly observed. When applied to the 1908-1958 reanalysis, the derived global frequency of tropical cyclones shows no significant trend over the period, while the frequency of events in the southern hemisphere shows a statistically significant decline and that of the northern hemisphere shows a marginally significant increase. There are statistically significant increases in frequency over the period in the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and northern Indian Oceans, while frequency declines in the western North Pacific. Power dissipation estimates from best-track data are highly correlated with the power dissipation of downscaled events in the Atlantic, though the amplitude of the variability and trends of the downscaled power dissipation are smaller than those of the best-track estimates by about a factor of two. A recently developed genesis index applied to the reanalysis data is highly correlated with downscaled event frequency on regional spatial scales, but is largely uncorrelated at the scale of the globe and even on the scale of large tropical cyclone-producing regions such as the western North Pacific. Finally, while it is tempting to believe that specification of sea surface temperature is sufficient for capturing most aspects of the general state of the atmosphere relevant to tropical cyclones, we show, using simple arguments, that failure to account for changing radiative properties of the atmosphere can distort the response of tropical ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Indian Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Tropical cyclones and climate Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
Tropical cyclones and climate Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 Kerry Emanuel Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
topic_facet |
Tropical cyclones and climate Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
A recently developed technique for deducing tropical cyclone activity from global reanalyses and climate models is applied to a reanalysis of the global atmosphere during the period 1908-1958. This reanalysis assimilates only sea surface temperature, sea ice, and surface pressure observations, which are relatively homogeneous over the period. The downscaling technique has been shown to produce results in good agreement with observations of tropical cyclones when driven by reanalyses over the period 1980-2006, a period when global tropical cyclone frequency was robustly observed. When applied to the 1908-1958 reanalysis, the derived global frequency of tropical cyclones shows no significant trend over the period, while the frequency of events in the southern hemisphere shows a statistically significant decline and that of the northern hemisphere shows a marginally significant increase. There are statistically significant increases in frequency over the period in the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and northern Indian Oceans, while frequency declines in the western North Pacific. Power dissipation estimates from best-track data are highly correlated with the power dissipation of downscaled events in the Atlantic, though the amplitude of the variability and trends of the downscaled power dissipation are smaller than those of the best-track estimates by about a factor of two. A recently developed genesis index applied to the reanalysis data is highly correlated with downscaled event frequency on regional spatial scales, but is largely uncorrelated at the scale of the globe and even on the scale of large tropical cyclone-producing regions such as the western North Pacific. Finally, while it is tempting to believe that specification of sea surface temperature is sufficient for capturing most aspects of the general state of the atmosphere relevant to tropical cyclones, we show, using simple arguments, that failure to account for changing radiative properties of the atmosphere can distort the response of tropical ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kerry Emanuel |
author_facet |
Kerry Emanuel |
author_sort |
Kerry Emanuel |
title |
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
title_short |
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
title_full |
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
title_fullStr |
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
title_sort |
tropical cyclone activity downscaled from noaa-cires reanalysis, 1908-1958 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 https://doaj.org/article/93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 |
geographic |
Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 2, Pp Art. # 1-12 pp. (2010) |
op_relation |
http://james.agu.org/index.php/JAMES/article/view/v2n1 https://doaj.org/toc/1942-2466 doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 1942-2466 https://doaj.org/article/93773ee1075943a2bbab26c0399e26e3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
container_volume |
2 |
_version_ |
1766135085072908288 |