Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:92d87ab991294dbdb86d2efd7690b901 2023-05-15T16:09:36+02:00 Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation A. Marti A. Folch O. Jorba Z. Janjic 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 https://doaj.org/article/92d87ab991294dbdb86d2efd7690b901 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/4005/2017/acp-17-4005-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 https://doaj.org/article/92d87ab991294dbdb86d2efd7690b901 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 17, Iss 6, Pp 4005-4030 (2017) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 2022-12-31T10:06:24Z Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17 6 4005 4030 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 A. Marti A. Folch O. Jorba Z. Janjic Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Marti A. Folch O. Jorba Z. Janjic |
author_facet |
A. Marti A. Folch O. Jorba Z. Janjic |
author_sort |
A. Marti |
title |
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
title_short |
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
title_full |
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
title_fullStr |
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
title_sort |
volcanic ash modeling with the online nmmb-monarch-ash v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 https://doaj.org/article/92d87ab991294dbdb86d2efd7690b901 |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 17, Iss 6, Pp 4005-4030 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/4005/2017/acp-17-4005-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 https://doaj.org/article/92d87ab991294dbdb86d2efd7690b901 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
4005 |
op_container_end_page |
4030 |
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1766405462285090816 |