Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
The rapid increase in energy demand in the city of Reykjavik has posed the need for an additional supply of deep geothermal energy. The deep-hydraulic (re-)stimulation of well RV-43 on the peninsula of Geldinganes (north of Reykjavik) is an essential component of the plan implemented by Reykjavik En...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:92c6b26b49434264968215060e1d9daa 2023-05-15T16:51:32+02:00 Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland M. Broccardo A. Mignan F. Grigoli D. Karvounis A. P. Rinaldi L. Danciu H. Hofmann C. Milkereit T. Dahm G. Zimmermann V. Hjörleifsdóttir S. Wiemer 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 https://doaj.org/article/92c6b26b49434264968215060e1d9daa EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1573/2020/nhess-20-1573-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/92c6b26b49434264968215060e1d9daa Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 20, Pp 1573-1593 (2020) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 2022-12-31T03:40:54Z The rapid increase in energy demand in the city of Reykjavik has posed the need for an additional supply of deep geothermal energy. The deep-hydraulic (re-)stimulation of well RV-43 on the peninsula of Geldinganes (north of Reykjavik) is an essential component of the plan implemented by Reykjavik Energy to meet this energy target. Hydraulic stimulation is often associated with fluid-induced seismicity, most of which is not felt on the surface but which, in rare cases, can be a nuisance to the population and even damage the nearby building stock. This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic hazard and risk analysis for the site of interest. Specifically, we provide probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration, European microseismicity intensity, probability of light damage (damage risk), and individual risk. The results of the risk assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below 0.1 micromorts, and damage risk is below 10 −2 , for the total duration of the project. However, these results are affected by several orders of magnitude of variability due to the deep uncertainties present at all levels of the analysis, indicating a critical need in updating this risk assessment with in situ data collected during the stimulation. Therefore, it is important to stress that this a priori study represents a baseline model and starting point to be updated and refined after the start of the project. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geldinganes ENVELOPE(-21.807,-21.807,64.170,64.170) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20 6 1573 1593 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Broccardo A. Mignan F. Grigoli D. Karvounis A. P. Rinaldi L. Danciu H. Hofmann C. Milkereit T. Dahm G. Zimmermann V. Hjörleifsdóttir S. Wiemer Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
topic_facet |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The rapid increase in energy demand in the city of Reykjavik has posed the need for an additional supply of deep geothermal energy. The deep-hydraulic (re-)stimulation of well RV-43 on the peninsula of Geldinganes (north of Reykjavik) is an essential component of the plan implemented by Reykjavik Energy to meet this energy target. Hydraulic stimulation is often associated with fluid-induced seismicity, most of which is not felt on the surface but which, in rare cases, can be a nuisance to the population and even damage the nearby building stock. This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic hazard and risk analysis for the site of interest. Specifically, we provide probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration, European microseismicity intensity, probability of light damage (damage risk), and individual risk. The results of the risk assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below 0.1 micromorts, and damage risk is below 10 −2 , for the total duration of the project. However, these results are affected by several orders of magnitude of variability due to the deep uncertainties present at all levels of the analysis, indicating a critical need in updating this risk assessment with in situ data collected during the stimulation. Therefore, it is important to stress that this a priori study represents a baseline model and starting point to be updated and refined after the start of the project. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Broccardo A. Mignan F. Grigoli D. Karvounis A. P. Rinaldi L. Danciu H. Hofmann C. Milkereit T. Dahm G. Zimmermann V. Hjörleifsdóttir S. Wiemer |
author_facet |
M. Broccardo A. Mignan F. Grigoli D. Karvounis A. P. Rinaldi L. Danciu H. Hofmann C. Milkereit T. Dahm G. Zimmermann V. Hjörleifsdóttir S. Wiemer |
author_sort |
M. Broccardo |
title |
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
title_short |
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
title_full |
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland |
title_sort |
induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on geldinganes, iceland |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 https://doaj.org/article/92c6b26b49434264968215060e1d9daa |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-21.807,-21.807,64.170,64.170) |
geographic |
Geldinganes |
geographic_facet |
Geldinganes |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 20, Pp 1573-1593 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1573/2020/nhess-20-1573-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/92c6b26b49434264968215060e1d9daa |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1573 |
op_container_end_page |
1593 |
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1766041662501421056 |