Towards malaria elimination in Savannakhet, Lao PDR: mathematical modelling driven strategy design

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Sai Thein Than Tun, Lorenz von Seidlein, Tiengkham Pongvongsa, Mayfong Mayxay, Sompob Saralamba, Shwe Sin Kyaw, Phetsavanh Chanthavilay, Olivier Celhay, Tran Dang Nguyen, Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran, Daniel M. Parker, Maciej F. Boni, Arjen M. Dondorp, Lisa J. White
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2017
• Subjects: Malaria elimination; Plasmodium falciparum; Mathematical model; Savannakhet; Laos; Mass Vaccination and Drug Administration (MVDA); Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-2130-3; https://doaj.org/article/90d115a0856646ac80092a05171f9e82

Abstract Background The number of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases around the world has decreased substantially over the last 15 years, but with the spread of resistance against anti-malarial drugs and insecticides, this decline may not continue. There is an urgent need to consider alternative, accelerated strategies to eliminate malaria in countries like Lao PDR, where there are a few remaining endemic areas. A deterministic compartmental modelling tool was used to develop an integrated strategy for P. falciparum elimination in the Savannakhet province of Lao PDR. The model was designed to include key aspects of malaria transmission and integrated control measures, along with a user-friendly interface. Results Universal coverage was the foundation of the integrated strategy, which took the form of the deployment of community health workers who provided universal access to early diagnosis, treatment and long-lasting insecticidal nets. Acceleration was included as the deployment of three monthly rounds of mass drug administration targeted towards high prevalence villages, with the addition of three monthly doses of the RTS,S vaccine delivered en masse to the same high prevalence sub-population. A booster dose of vaccine was added 1 year later. The surveillance-as-intervention component of the package involved the screening and treatment of individuals entering the simulated population. Conclusions In this modelling approach, the sequential introduction of a series of five available interventions in an integrated strategy was predicted to be sufficient to stop malaria transmission within a 3-year period. These interventions comprised universal access to early diagnosis and adequate treatment, improved access to long-lasting insecticidal nets, three monthly rounds of mass drug administration together with RTS,S vaccination followed by a booster dose of vaccine, and screening and treatment of imported cases.