Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://doaj.org/article/8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
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language |
English |
topic |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Benjamin W Abbott Jeremy B Jones Edward A G Schuur F Stuart Chapin III William B Bowden M Syndonia Bret-Harte Howard E Epstein Michael D Flannigan Tamara K Harms Teresa N Hollingsworth Michelle C Mack A David McGuire Susan M Natali Adrian V Rocha Suzanne E Tank Merritt R Turetsky Jorien E Vonk Kimberly P Wickland George R Aiken Heather D Alexander Rainer M W Amon Brian W Benscoter Yves Bergeron Kevin Bishop Olivier Blarquez Ben Bond-Lamberty Amy L Breen Ishi Buffam Yihua Cai Christopher Carcaillet Sean K Carey Jing M Chen Han Y H Chen Torben R Christensen Lee W Cooper J Hans C Cornelissen William J de Groot Thomas H DeLuca Ellen Dorrepaal Ned Fetcher Jacques C Finlay Bruce C Forbes Nancy H F French Sylvie Gauthier Martin P Girardin Scott J Goetz Johann G Goldammer Laura Gough Paul Grogan Laodong Guo Philip E Higuera Larry Hinzman Feng Sheng Hu Gustaf Hugelius Elchin E Jafarov Randi Jandt Jill F Johnstone Jan Karlsson Eric S Kasischke Gerhard Kattner Ryan Kelly Frida Keuper George W Kling Pirkko Kortelainen Jari Kouki Peter Kuhry Hjalmar Laudon Isabelle Laurion Robie W Macdonald Paul J Mann Pertti J Martikainen James W McClelland Ulf Molau Steven F Oberbauer David Olefeldt David Paré Marc-André Parisien Serge Payette Changhui Peng Oleg S Pokrovsky Edward B Rastetter Peter A Raymond Martha K Raynolds Guillermo Rein James F Reynolds Martin Robards Brendan M Rogers Christina Schädel Kevin Schaefer Inger K Schmidt Anatoly Shvidenko Jasper Sky Robert G M Spencer Gregory Starr Robert G Striegl Roman Teisserenc Lars J Tranvik Tarmo Virtanen Jeffrey M Welker Sergei Zimov Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benjamin W Abbott Jeremy B Jones Edward A G Schuur F Stuart Chapin III William B Bowden M Syndonia Bret-Harte Howard E Epstein Michael D Flannigan Tamara K Harms Teresa N Hollingsworth Michelle C Mack A David McGuire Susan M Natali Adrian V Rocha Suzanne E Tank Merritt R Turetsky Jorien E Vonk Kimberly P Wickland George R Aiken Heather D Alexander Rainer M W Amon Brian W Benscoter Yves Bergeron Kevin Bishop Olivier Blarquez Ben Bond-Lamberty Amy L Breen Ishi Buffam Yihua Cai Christopher Carcaillet Sean K Carey Jing M Chen Han Y H Chen Torben R Christensen Lee W Cooper J Hans C Cornelissen William J de Groot Thomas H DeLuca Ellen Dorrepaal Ned Fetcher Jacques C Finlay Bruce C Forbes Nancy H F French Sylvie Gauthier Martin P Girardin Scott J Goetz Johann G Goldammer Laura Gough Paul Grogan Laodong Guo Philip E Higuera Larry Hinzman Feng Sheng Hu Gustaf Hugelius Elchin E Jafarov Randi Jandt Jill F Johnstone Jan Karlsson Eric S Kasischke Gerhard Kattner Ryan Kelly Frida Keuper George W Kling Pirkko Kortelainen Jari Kouki Peter Kuhry Hjalmar Laudon Isabelle Laurion Robie W Macdonald Paul J Mann Pertti J Martikainen James W McClelland Ulf Molau Steven F Oberbauer David Olefeldt David Paré Marc-André Parisien Serge Payette Changhui Peng Oleg S Pokrovsky Edward B Rastetter Peter A Raymond Martha K Raynolds Guillermo Rein James F Reynolds Martin Robards Brendan M Rogers Christina Schädel Kevin Schaefer Inger K Schmidt Anatoly Shvidenko Jasper Sky Robert G M Spencer Gregory Starr Robert G Striegl Roman Teisserenc Lars J Tranvik Tarmo Virtanen Jeffrey M Welker Sergei Zimov |
author_facet |
Benjamin W Abbott Jeremy B Jones Edward A G Schuur F Stuart Chapin III William B Bowden M Syndonia Bret-Harte Howard E Epstein Michael D Flannigan Tamara K Harms Teresa N Hollingsworth Michelle C Mack A David McGuire Susan M Natali Adrian V Rocha Suzanne E Tank Merritt R Turetsky Jorien E Vonk Kimberly P Wickland George R Aiken Heather D Alexander Rainer M W Amon Brian W Benscoter Yves Bergeron Kevin Bishop Olivier Blarquez Ben Bond-Lamberty Amy L Breen Ishi Buffam Yihua Cai Christopher Carcaillet Sean K Carey Jing M Chen Han Y H Chen Torben R Christensen Lee W Cooper J Hans C Cornelissen William J de Groot Thomas H DeLuca Ellen Dorrepaal Ned Fetcher Jacques C Finlay Bruce C Forbes Nancy H F French Sylvie Gauthier Martin P Girardin Scott J Goetz Johann G Goldammer Laura Gough Paul Grogan Laodong Guo Philip E Higuera Larry Hinzman Feng Sheng Hu Gustaf Hugelius Elchin E Jafarov Randi Jandt Jill F Johnstone Jan Karlsson Eric S Kasischke Gerhard Kattner Ryan Kelly Frida Keuper George W Kling Pirkko Kortelainen Jari Kouki Peter Kuhry Hjalmar Laudon Isabelle Laurion Robie W Macdonald Paul J Mann Pertti J Martikainen James W McClelland Ulf Molau Steven F Oberbauer David Olefeldt David Paré Marc-André Parisien Serge Payette Changhui Peng Oleg S Pokrovsky Edward B Rastetter Peter A Raymond Martha K Raynolds Guillermo Rein James F Reynolds Martin Robards Brendan M Rogers Christina Schädel Kevin Schaefer Inger K Schmidt Anatoly Shvidenko Jasper Sky Robert G M Spencer Gregory Starr Robert G Striegl Roman Teisserenc Lars J Tranvik Tarmo Virtanen Jeffrey M Welker Sergei Zimov |
author_sort |
Benjamin W Abbott |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://doaj.org/article/8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 034014 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
_version_ |
1776198386525929472 |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 2023-09-05T13:17:03+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment Benjamin W Abbott Jeremy B Jones Edward A G Schuur F Stuart Chapin III William B Bowden M Syndonia Bret-Harte Howard E Epstein Michael D Flannigan Tamara K Harms Teresa N Hollingsworth Michelle C Mack A David McGuire Susan M Natali Adrian V Rocha Suzanne E Tank Merritt R Turetsky Jorien E Vonk Kimberly P Wickland George R Aiken Heather D Alexander Rainer M W Amon Brian W Benscoter Yves Bergeron Kevin Bishop Olivier Blarquez Ben Bond-Lamberty Amy L Breen Ishi Buffam Yihua Cai Christopher Carcaillet Sean K Carey Jing M Chen Han Y H Chen Torben R Christensen Lee W Cooper J Hans C Cornelissen William J de Groot Thomas H DeLuca Ellen Dorrepaal Ned Fetcher Jacques C Finlay Bruce C Forbes Nancy H F French Sylvie Gauthier Martin P Girardin Scott J Goetz Johann G Goldammer Laura Gough Paul Grogan Laodong Guo Philip E Higuera Larry Hinzman Feng Sheng Hu Gustaf Hugelius Elchin E Jafarov Randi Jandt Jill F Johnstone Jan Karlsson Eric S Kasischke Gerhard Kattner Ryan Kelly Frida Keuper George W Kling Pirkko Kortelainen Jari Kouki Peter Kuhry Hjalmar Laudon Isabelle Laurion Robie W Macdonald Paul J Mann Pertti J Martikainen James W McClelland Ulf Molau Steven F Oberbauer David Olefeldt David Paré Marc-André Parisien Serge Payette Changhui Peng Oleg S Pokrovsky Edward B Rastetter Peter A Raymond Martha K Raynolds Guillermo Rein James F Reynolds Martin Robards Brendan M Rogers Christina Schädel Kevin Schaefer Inger K Schmidt Anatoly Shvidenko Jasper Sky Robert G M Spencer Gregory Starr Robert G Striegl Roman Teisserenc Lars J Tranvik Tarmo Virtanen Jeffrey M Welker Sergei Zimov 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://doaj.org/article/8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8fff2094b4884dfeb3c1cf9fa5ca9196 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 034014 (2016) permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2023-08-13T00:37:52Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |