Interactions within the climate-vegetation-fire nexus may transform 21st century boreal forests in northwestern Canada

• Published in: iScience
• Main Authors: Dorian M. Gaboriau, Émeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Hugo Asselin, Adam A. Ali, Yves Bergeron, Christelle Hély
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2023
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Environmental science; Global change; Ecology; Science; Q; Canada; Northwest Territories
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106807; https://doaj.org/article/8fe158f0dae0449f948c0e7df35573da

Summary: Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NT). Although temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC’s climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT’s terrestrial ecosystems.