Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect
Abstract Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO2 forcing in two c...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8fbabf092b3042b88125fbe3d43de599 2024-09-15T18:20:51+00:00 Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect Ivan Mitevski Yue Dong Lorenzo M. Polvani Maria Rugenstein Clara Orbe 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/article/8fbabf092b3042b88125fbe3d43de599 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/article/8fbabf092b3042b88125fbe3d43de599 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 14, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) ECS pattern effect North Atlantic Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO2 forcing in two climate models. Our results indicate that normalized EffCS values in these simulations are a non‐monotonic function of the CO2 forcing, decreasing between 3× and 4×CO2 in CESM1‐LE (2× and 3×CO2 in GISS‐E2.1‐G) and increasing at higher CO2 levels. The minimum EffCS value, caused by anomalously negative radiative feedbacks, arises mainly from sea‐surface temperature (SST) relative cooling in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse under CO2 forcing. Our findings imply that understanding changes in North Atlantic SST patterns is important for constraining near‐future and equilibrium global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 50 14 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ECS pattern effect North Atlantic Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
ECS pattern effect North Atlantic Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Ivan Mitevski Yue Dong Lorenzo M. Polvani Maria Rugenstein Clara Orbe Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
topic_facet |
ECS pattern effect North Atlantic Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO2 forcing in two climate models. Our results indicate that normalized EffCS values in these simulations are a non‐monotonic function of the CO2 forcing, decreasing between 3× and 4×CO2 in CESM1‐LE (2× and 3×CO2 in GISS‐E2.1‐G) and increasing at higher CO2 levels. The minimum EffCS value, caused by anomalously negative radiative feedbacks, arises mainly from sea‐surface temperature (SST) relative cooling in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse under CO2 forcing. Our findings imply that understanding changes in North Atlantic SST patterns is important for constraining near‐future and equilibrium global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ivan Mitevski Yue Dong Lorenzo M. Polvani Maria Rugenstein Clara Orbe |
author_facet |
Ivan Mitevski Yue Dong Lorenzo M. Polvani Maria Rugenstein Clara Orbe |
author_sort |
Ivan Mitevski |
title |
Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
title_short |
Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
title_full |
Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
title_fullStr |
Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
title_full_unstemmed |
Non‐Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect |
title_sort |
non‐monotonic feedback dependence under abrupt co2 forcing due to a north atlantic pattern effect |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/article/8fbabf092b3042b88125fbe3d43de599 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 14, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2023GL103617 https://doaj.org/article/8fbabf092b3042b88125fbe3d43de599 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
14 |
_version_ |
1810459232737165312 |