From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative
Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused...
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Resilience Alliance
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12856-260430 https://doaj.org/article/8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a 2023-05-15T17:58:13+02:00 From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative Laura M. Pereira David R. Morrow Valentina Aquila Brian Beckage Sam Beckbesinger Lauren Beukes Holly J. Buck Colin J. Carlson Oliver Geden Andrew P. Jones David P. Keller Katharine J. Mach Mohale Mashigo Juan B. Moreno-Cruz Daniele Visioni Simon Nicholson Christopher H. Trisos 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12856-260430 https://doaj.org/article/8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a EN eng Resilience Alliance https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss4/art30/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-12856-260430 https://doaj.org/article/8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a Ecology and Society, Vol 26, Iss 4, p 30 (2021) carbon dioxide removal climate change futures geoengineering scenarios science fiction solar radiation management Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12856-260430 2022-12-30T22:12:02Z Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused on these potential responses to climate change tend to exclude feedbacks between social and climate systems (a criticism applicable to climate change scenarios more generally). We adapted the Manoa Mash-Up method to generate scenarios for CDR and SRM that were more integrative, creative, and dynamic. The method was modified to identify important branching points in which different choices in how to respond to climate change (feedbacks between climate and social dynamics) lead to a plurality of climate futures. An interdisciplinary group of participants imagined distant futures in which SRM or CDR develop into a major social-environmental force. Groups received other "seeds" of change, such as Universal Basic Income or China's Belt and Road Initiative, and surprises, such as permafrost collapse that grew to influence the course of events to 2100. Groups developed narratives describing pathways to the future and identified bifurcation points to generate families of branching scenarios. Four climate-social dynamics were identified: motivation to mitigate, moral hazard, social unrest, and trust in institutions. These dynamics could orient toward better or worse outcomes with SRM and CDR deployment (and mitigation and adaptation responses more generally) but are typically excluded from existing climate change scenarios. The importance of these dynamics could be tested through the inclusion of social-environmental feedbacks into integrated assessment models (IAM) exploring climate futures. We offer a step-by-step guide to the modified Manoa Mash-up method to generate more integrative, creative, and dynamic scenarios; reflect on broader implications of using this method for generating more dynamic scenarios for climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ecology and Society 26 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
carbon dioxide removal climate change futures geoengineering scenarios science fiction solar radiation management Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
carbon dioxide removal climate change futures geoengineering scenarios science fiction solar radiation management Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 Laura M. Pereira David R. Morrow Valentina Aquila Brian Beckage Sam Beckbesinger Lauren Beukes Holly J. Buck Colin J. Carlson Oliver Geden Andrew P. Jones David P. Keller Katharine J. Mach Mohale Mashigo Juan B. Moreno-Cruz Daniele Visioni Simon Nicholson Christopher H. Trisos From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
topic_facet |
carbon dioxide removal climate change futures geoengineering scenarios science fiction solar radiation management Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused on these potential responses to climate change tend to exclude feedbacks between social and climate systems (a criticism applicable to climate change scenarios more generally). We adapted the Manoa Mash-Up method to generate scenarios for CDR and SRM that were more integrative, creative, and dynamic. The method was modified to identify important branching points in which different choices in how to respond to climate change (feedbacks between climate and social dynamics) lead to a plurality of climate futures. An interdisciplinary group of participants imagined distant futures in which SRM or CDR develop into a major social-environmental force. Groups received other "seeds" of change, such as Universal Basic Income or China's Belt and Road Initiative, and surprises, such as permafrost collapse that grew to influence the course of events to 2100. Groups developed narratives describing pathways to the future and identified bifurcation points to generate families of branching scenarios. Four climate-social dynamics were identified: motivation to mitigate, moral hazard, social unrest, and trust in institutions. These dynamics could orient toward better or worse outcomes with SRM and CDR deployment (and mitigation and adaptation responses more generally) but are typically excluded from existing climate change scenarios. The importance of these dynamics could be tested through the inclusion of social-environmental feedbacks into integrated assessment models (IAM) exploring climate futures. We offer a step-by-step guide to the modified Manoa Mash-up method to generate more integrative, creative, and dynamic scenarios; reflect on broader implications of using this method for generating more dynamic scenarios for climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Laura M. Pereira David R. Morrow Valentina Aquila Brian Beckage Sam Beckbesinger Lauren Beukes Holly J. Buck Colin J. Carlson Oliver Geden Andrew P. Jones David P. Keller Katharine J. Mach Mohale Mashigo Juan B. Moreno-Cruz Daniele Visioni Simon Nicholson Christopher H. Trisos |
author_facet |
Laura M. Pereira David R. Morrow Valentina Aquila Brian Beckage Sam Beckbesinger Lauren Beukes Holly J. Buck Colin J. Carlson Oliver Geden Andrew P. Jones David P. Keller Katharine J. Mach Mohale Mashigo Juan B. Moreno-Cruz Daniele Visioni Simon Nicholson Christopher H. Trisos |
author_sort |
Laura M. Pereira |
title |
From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
title_short |
From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
title_full |
From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
title_fullStr |
From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
title_full_unstemmed |
From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
title_sort |
from fairplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12856-260430 https://doaj.org/article/8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, Vol 26, Iss 4, p 30 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss4/art30/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-12856-260430 https://doaj.org/article/8fada3a874bb4c5faee1f30644a74a8a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12856-260430 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766166775960961024 |