COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact.
The epidemic of COVID-19 has shown different developments in Africa compared to the other continents. Three different approaches were used in this study to analyze this situation. In the first part, basic statistics were performed to estimate the contribution of the elderly people to the total numbe...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8f985444f71a494fbf454ead739b0836 2023-05-15T15:18:04+02:00 COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. Nathan Thenon Marisa Peyre Mireille Huc Abdoulaye Touré François Roger Sylvain Mangiarotti 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/article/8f985444f71a494fbf454ead739b0836 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/article/8f985444f71a494fbf454ead739b0836 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0010735 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 2022-12-30T20:21:55Z The epidemic of COVID-19 has shown different developments in Africa compared to the other continents. Three different approaches were used in this study to analyze this situation. In the first part, basic statistics were performed to estimate the contribution of the elderly people to the total numbers of cases and deaths in comparison to the other continents; Similarly, the health systems capacities were analysed to assess the level of underreporting. In the second part, differential equations were reconstructed from the epidemiological time series of cases and deaths (from the John Hopkins University) to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 in seventeen countries. In the third part, the time evolution of the contact number was reconstructed since the beginning of the outbreak to investigate the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies. Results were compared to the Oxford stringency index and to the mobility indices of the Google Community Mobility Reports. Compared to Europe, the analyses show that the lower proportion of elderly people in Africa enables to explain the lower total numbers of cases and deaths by a factor of 5.1 on average (from 1.9 to 7.8). It corresponds to a genuine effect. Nevertheless, COVID-19 numbers are effectively largely underestimated in Africa by a factor of 8.5 on average (from 1.7 to 20. and more) due to the weakness of the health systems at country level. Geographically, the models obtained for the dynamics of cases and deaths reveal very diversified dynamics. The dynamics is chaotic in many contexts, including a situation of bistability rarely observed in dynamical systems. Finally, the contact number directly deduced from the epidemiological observations reveals an effective role of the mitigation strategies on the short term. On the long term, control measures have contributed to maintain the epidemic at a low level although the progressive release of the stringency did not produce a clear increase of the contact number. The arrival of the omicron variant is clearly detected and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 9 e0010735 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Nathan Thenon Marisa Peyre Mireille Huc Abdoulaye Touré François Roger Sylvain Mangiarotti COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The epidemic of COVID-19 has shown different developments in Africa compared to the other continents. Three different approaches were used in this study to analyze this situation. In the first part, basic statistics were performed to estimate the contribution of the elderly people to the total numbers of cases and deaths in comparison to the other continents; Similarly, the health systems capacities were analysed to assess the level of underreporting. In the second part, differential equations were reconstructed from the epidemiological time series of cases and deaths (from the John Hopkins University) to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 in seventeen countries. In the third part, the time evolution of the contact number was reconstructed since the beginning of the outbreak to investigate the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies. Results were compared to the Oxford stringency index and to the mobility indices of the Google Community Mobility Reports. Compared to Europe, the analyses show that the lower proportion of elderly people in Africa enables to explain the lower total numbers of cases and deaths by a factor of 5.1 on average (from 1.9 to 7.8). It corresponds to a genuine effect. Nevertheless, COVID-19 numbers are effectively largely underestimated in Africa by a factor of 8.5 on average (from 1.7 to 20. and more) due to the weakness of the health systems at country level. Geographically, the models obtained for the dynamics of cases and deaths reveal very diversified dynamics. The dynamics is chaotic in many contexts, including a situation of bistability rarely observed in dynamical systems. Finally, the contact number directly deduced from the epidemiological observations reveals an effective role of the mitigation strategies on the short term. On the long term, control measures have contributed to maintain the epidemic at a low level although the progressive release of the stringency did not produce a clear increase of the contact number. The arrival of the omicron variant is clearly detected and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nathan Thenon Marisa Peyre Mireille Huc Abdoulaye Touré François Roger Sylvain Mangiarotti |
author_facet |
Nathan Thenon Marisa Peyre Mireille Huc Abdoulaye Touré François Roger Sylvain Mangiarotti |
author_sort |
Nathan Thenon |
title |
COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
title_short |
COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
title_full |
COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
title_fullStr |
COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
title_full_unstemmed |
COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
title_sort |
covid-19 in africa: underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/article/8f985444f71a494fbf454ead739b0836 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0010735 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 https://doaj.org/article/8f985444f71a494fbf454ead739b0836 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010735 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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