The Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability on the Mediterranean Climate

• Published in: 16th International Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics—COMECAP 2023
• Main Authors: Nikoleta Petridi, Iliana Polychroni, Maria Hatzaki
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2023
• Subjects: AMOC; climate variability; Mediterranean climate; ERA5; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2023026160; https://doaj.org/article/8f8da879e36c4645b0daecac23bd8371

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean, which transports heat to the poles and cold saline waters to the tropics. The AMOC mechanism is responsible for many climate and weather systems; however, it is naturally unstable, and it changes in time depending on sea-ice melt, wind patterns, solar radiation variations, etc. At the same time, there are recent indications that the AMOC is in a weaker state than previously thought with impacts more severe than expected. Knowing that the AMOC can impact remote systems, and given the risk the Mediterranean faces with climate change progressing, we focus on the relationship between the AMOC and the Mediterranean climate, based on AMOC indicators and monthly ERA5 fields (sea surface temperature, air temperature and total precipitation) from 1959 to 2021. We find that the two systems exhibit a relationship although it is not homogenous. More specifically, the AMOC is highly correlated with sea and air temperatures of the central and eastern Mediterranean with a time lag of up to 2 years, while strong links are found with the entire Mediterranean’s annual total precipitation up to 3 years ahead. The results suggest the possibility of predicting the occurrence of significantly extreme periods in the Mediterranean several months in advance.