Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic

• Published in: Resources
• Main Authors: Yuriy Zhukovskiy, Pavel Tsvetkov, Aleksandra Buldysko, Yana Malkova, Antonina Stoianova, Anastasia Koshenkova
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021
• Subjects: SDG-goals; Arctic; energy supply; scenario modeling; technological demand; energy scenarios; Science; Q
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/resources10120124; https://doaj.org/article/8efece51e2a44352b38645a185b83ed9

The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, ...