Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco.
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8efab00925fe4578b49b3c80b3fabbea 2023-05-15T15:14:05+02:00 Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. Mahamat Fayiz Abakar Hind Yahyaoui Azami Philipp Justus Bless Lisa Crump Petra Lohmann Mirjam Laager Nakul Chitnis Jakob Zinsstag 2017-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 https://doaj.org/article/8efab00925fe4578b49b3c80b3fabbea EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5289436?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 https://doaj.org/article/8efab00925fe4578b49b3c80b3fabbea PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 2, p e0005214 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 2022-12-31T04:40:58Z Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals. We established a simple compartmental deterministic mathematical model for BTB transmission in cattle and humans to provide a general understanding of BTB, in particular regarding transmission to humans. Differential equations were used to model the different pathways between the compartments for cattle and humans. Scenarios of test and slaughter were simulated to determine the effects of varying the proportion of tested animals (p) on the time to elimination of BTB (individual animal prevalence of less than one in a thousand) in cattle and humans. The time to freedom from disease ranged from 75 years for p = 20% to 12 years for p = 100%. For p > 60% the time to elimination was less than 20 years. The cumulated cost was largely stable: for p values higher than 40%, cost ranged from 1.47 to 1.60 billion euros with a time frame of 12 to 32 years to reach freedom from disease. The model simulations also suggest that using a 2mm cut off instead of a 4mm cut off in the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin skin test (SICCT) would result in cheaper and quicker elimination programs. This analysis informs Moroccan bovine tuberculosis control policy regarding time frame, range of cost and levels of intervention. However, further research is needed to clarify the national human-bovine tuberculosis ratio in Morocco. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Slaughter ENVELOPE(-85.633,-85.633,-78.617,-78.617) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 2 e0005214 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Mahamat Fayiz Abakar Hind Yahyaoui Azami Philipp Justus Bless Lisa Crump Petra Lohmann Mirjam Laager Nakul Chitnis Jakob Zinsstag Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals. We established a simple compartmental deterministic mathematical model for BTB transmission in cattle and humans to provide a general understanding of BTB, in particular regarding transmission to humans. Differential equations were used to model the different pathways between the compartments for cattle and humans. Scenarios of test and slaughter were simulated to determine the effects of varying the proportion of tested animals (p) on the time to elimination of BTB (individual animal prevalence of less than one in a thousand) in cattle and humans. The time to freedom from disease ranged from 75 years for p = 20% to 12 years for p = 100%. For p > 60% the time to elimination was less than 20 years. The cumulated cost was largely stable: for p values higher than 40%, cost ranged from 1.47 to 1.60 billion euros with a time frame of 12 to 32 years to reach freedom from disease. The model simulations also suggest that using a 2mm cut off instead of a 4mm cut off in the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin skin test (SICCT) would result in cheaper and quicker elimination programs. This analysis informs Moroccan bovine tuberculosis control policy regarding time frame, range of cost and levels of intervention. However, further research is needed to clarify the national human-bovine tuberculosis ratio in Morocco. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar Hind Yahyaoui Azami Philipp Justus Bless Lisa Crump Petra Lohmann Mirjam Laager Nakul Chitnis Jakob Zinsstag |
author_facet |
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar Hind Yahyaoui Azami Philipp Justus Bless Lisa Crump Petra Lohmann Mirjam Laager Nakul Chitnis Jakob Zinsstag |
author_sort |
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar |
title |
Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
title_short |
Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
title_full |
Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
title_fullStr |
Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
title_sort |
transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 https://doaj.org/article/8efab00925fe4578b49b3c80b3fabbea |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-85.633,-85.633,-78.617,-78.617) |
geographic |
Arctic Slaughter |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Slaughter |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 2, p e0005214 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5289436?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 https://doaj.org/article/8efab00925fe4578b49b3c80b3fabbea |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005214 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0005214 |
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1766344582777274368 |