Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall
Study region: Africa Study focus: African rainfall shows significant year-to-year natural fluctuations that in part are linked to teleconnections associated with modes of variability in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. A better understanding of African rainfall variability and potential driv...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ec5b56cacfa4e079dd64aa1d3398e27 2023-05-15T17:34:24+02:00 Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Gisela Müller-Plath Michael G. Wallace Sebastian Lüning 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 https://doaj.org/article/8ec5b56cacfa4e079dd64aa1d3398e27 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000240 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 https://doaj.org/article/8ec5b56cacfa4e079dd64aa1d3398e27 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100795- (2021) Precipitation Natural variability Modes of variability Sahel Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 2022-12-31T09:41:00Z Study region: Africa Study focus: African rainfall shows significant year-to-year natural fluctuations that in part are linked to teleconnections associated with modes of variability in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. A better understanding of African rainfall variability and potential drivers would help to better prepare African societies for anticipated droughts and floods by taking early precautionary action. Here we are presenting the first continent-wide analysis of African rainfall variability on a month-by-month and country-by-country basis. We have calculated Pearson r values for smoothed monthly rainfall data of 49 African countries over the period 1901–2017 which we compared to six potential climatic drivers of natural variability, namely AMO, NAO, ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and solar activity changes. We allowed time lags of up to 11 months for each potential driver (66 months for solar activity). New hydrological insights for the region: The dynamic temporal-spatial evolution of the seasonal Pearson correlations was mapped out across the continent, tracking the gradual or abrupt expansion, displacement and subsequent waning of the various effects over the course of the year. Relationships are complicated by characteristic time lags, non-stationary correlations and occasional phase shifts. Our empirical results may help to further improve short- to midterm rainfall prognoses in Africa and provide important calibration data for the further improvement of climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Indian Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 34 100795 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Precipitation Natural variability Modes of variability Sahel Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Precipitation Natural variability Modes of variability Sahel Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Gisela Müller-Plath Michael G. Wallace Sebastian Lüning Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
topic_facet |
Precipitation Natural variability Modes of variability Sahel Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Study region: Africa Study focus: African rainfall shows significant year-to-year natural fluctuations that in part are linked to teleconnections associated with modes of variability in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. A better understanding of African rainfall variability and potential drivers would help to better prepare African societies for anticipated droughts and floods by taking early precautionary action. Here we are presenting the first continent-wide analysis of African rainfall variability on a month-by-month and country-by-country basis. We have calculated Pearson r values for smoothed monthly rainfall data of 49 African countries over the period 1901–2017 which we compared to six potential climatic drivers of natural variability, namely AMO, NAO, ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and solar activity changes. We allowed time lags of up to 11 months for each potential driver (66 months for solar activity). New hydrological insights for the region: The dynamic temporal-spatial evolution of the seasonal Pearson correlations was mapped out across the continent, tracking the gradual or abrupt expansion, displacement and subsequent waning of the various effects over the course of the year. Relationships are complicated by characteristic time lags, non-stationary correlations and occasional phase shifts. Our empirical results may help to further improve short- to midterm rainfall prognoses in Africa and provide important calibration data for the further improvement of climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Gisela Müller-Plath Michael G. Wallace Sebastian Lüning |
author_facet |
Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Gisela Müller-Plath Michael G. Wallace Sebastian Lüning |
author_sort |
Horst-Joachim Lüdecke |
title |
Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
title_short |
Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
title_full |
Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
title_fullStr |
Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall |
title_sort |
decadal and multidecadal natural variability of african rainfall |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 https://doaj.org/article/8ec5b56cacfa4e079dd64aa1d3398e27 |
geographic |
Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100795- (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000240 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 https://doaj.org/article/8ec5b56cacfa4e079dd64aa1d3398e27 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
container_volume |
34 |
container_start_page |
100795 |
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1766133211921907712 |