Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Kristin Richter, Benoit Meyssignac, Aimée B A Slangen, Angélique Melet, John A Church, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Marzeion, Cécile Agosta, Stefan R M Ligtenberg, Giorgio Spada, Matthew D Palmer, Christopher D Roberts, Nicolas Champollion
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: IOP Publishing 2020
• Subjects: forced trends; internal variability; detection; sea-level rise; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; TD1-1066; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Science; Q; Physics; QC1-999; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e; https://doaj.org/article/8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01

In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales.