Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change
In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and ma...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 2023-09-05T13:20:16+02:00 Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://doaj.org/article/8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 9, p 094079 (2020) forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e 2023-08-13T00:37:02Z In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 15 9 094079 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
topic_facet |
forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion |
author_facet |
Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion |
author_sort |
Kristin Richter |
title |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_short |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_full |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_sort |
detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://doaj.org/article/8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 9, p 094079 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094079 |
_version_ |
1776200977209098240 |