Explicit solutions for a probabilistic moraine preservation model

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Author: PAUL MUZIKAR
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press 2016
• Subjects: glaciation; moraines; stochastic model; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.109; https://doaj.org/article/8e915d6ab1284549b11381f7abe73a01

If a series of glacial advances occurs over the same pathway, the moraines that are now present may constitute an incomplete record of the total history. This is because a given advance can destroy the moraine left by a previous one, if the previous advance was less extensive. Gibbons, Megeath and Pierce (GMP) formulated an elegant stochastic model for this process; the key quantity in their analysis is $\bi P(n\vert N)$ , the probability that n moraines are preserved after N glacial advances. In their paper, GMP derive a recursion formula satisfied by $\bi P(n\vert N)$ , and use this formula to compute values of P for a range of values of n and N. In the present paper, we derive an explicit general answer for $\bi P(n\vert N)$ , and show explicit, exact results for the mean value and standard deviation of n. We use these results to develop more insight into the consequences of the GMP model; for example, to a good approximation, 〈n〉 increases as ln(N). We explain how a Bayesian approach can be used to analyze $\bi P(N\vert n)$ , the probability that there were N advances, given that we now observe n moraines.