Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with chang...

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Published in:Climate
Main Authors: Yonas Dibike, Hyung-Il Eum, Paulin Coulibaly, Joshua Hartmann
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2019
Subjects:
Q
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
https://doaj.org/article/8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4 2023-05-15T15:25:59+02:00 Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis Yonas Dibike Hyung-Il Eum Paulin Coulibaly Joshua Hartmann 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088 https://doaj.org/article/8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/7/88 https://doaj.org/toc/2225-1154 2225-1154 doi:10.3390/cli7070088 https://doaj.org/article/8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4 Climate, Vol 7, Iss 7, p 88 (2019) Athabasca River climate projection hydrologic modelling peak-flow return period stationary analysis non-stationary analysis Science Q article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088 2022-12-31T09:16:11Z Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Athabasca River Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Athabasca River Canada Climate 7 7 88
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
Science
Q
spellingShingle Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
Science
Q
Yonas Dibike
Hyung-Il Eum
Paulin Coulibaly
Joshua Hartmann
Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
topic_facet Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
Science
Q
description Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Yonas Dibike
Hyung-Il Eum
Paulin Coulibaly
Joshua Hartmann
author_facet Yonas Dibike
Hyung-Il Eum
Paulin Coulibaly
Joshua Hartmann
author_sort Yonas Dibike
title Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_short Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_full Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_fullStr Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_sort projected changes in the frequency of peak flows along the athabasca river: sensitivity of results to statistical methods of analysis
publisher MDPI AG
publishDate 2019
url https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
https://doaj.org/article/8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4
geographic Athabasca River
Canada
geographic_facet Athabasca River
Canada
genre Athabasca River
genre_facet Athabasca River
op_source Climate, Vol 7, Iss 7, p 88 (2019)
op_relation https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/7/88
https://doaj.org/toc/2225-1154
2225-1154
doi:10.3390/cli7070088
https://doaj.org/article/8dd049ad4ac24c0da36d82ebb40390c4
op_doi https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
container_title Climate
container_volume 7
container_issue 7
container_start_page 88
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