Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble
Abstract The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8d9854a14094462c95a998560fd5292a 2024-09-09T19:54:28+00:00 Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble L. H. Baker L. C. Shaffrey S. J. Johnson A. Weisheimer 2024-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/article/8d9854a14094462c95a998560fd5292a EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/article/8d9854a14094462c95a998560fd5292a Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 15, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) seasonal forecasting North Atlantic East Atlantic Pattern predictability forecast skill Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 2024-08-19T14:56:40Z Abstract The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 51 15 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic East Atlantic Pattern predictability forecast skill Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic East Atlantic Pattern predictability forecast skill Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 L. H. Baker L. C. Shaffrey S. J. Johnson A. Weisheimer Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
topic_facet |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic East Atlantic Pattern predictability forecast skill Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L. H. Baker L. C. Shaffrey S. J. Johnson A. Weisheimer |
author_facet |
L. H. Baker L. C. Shaffrey S. J. Johnson A. Weisheimer |
author_sort |
L. H. Baker |
title |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_short |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_full |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_sort |
understanding the intermittency of the wintertime north atlantic oscillation and east atlantic pattern seasonal forecast skill in the copernicus c3s multi‐model ensemble |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/article/8d9854a14094462c95a998560fd5292a |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 15, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2024GL108472 https://doaj.org/article/8d9854a14094462c95a998560fd5292a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
15 |
_version_ |
1809923850635313152 |