Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population
The Cumberland Sound (CS) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population inhabits CS on eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, and is listed as threatened under the Canadian Species at Risk Act. The population dynamics of CS beluga whales have been modelled in the past, but the effect of environmental c...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ce1ed28dd6348db9fb91cd041ca832f 2023-05-15T15:35:27+02:00 Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population BA Biddlecombe CA Watt 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01186 https://doaj.org/article/8ce1ed28dd6348db9fb91cd041ca832f EN eng Inter-Research https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/esr/v48/p51-65/ https://doaj.org/toc/1863-5407 https://doaj.org/toc/1613-4796 1863-5407 1613-4796 doi:10.3354/esr01186 https://doaj.org/article/8ce1ed28dd6348db9fb91cd041ca832f Endangered Species Research, Vol 48, Pp 51-65 (2022) Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01186 2022-12-31T03:06:43Z The Cumberland Sound (CS) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population inhabits CS on eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, and is listed as threatened under the Canadian Species at Risk Act. The population dynamics of CS beluga whales have been modelled in the past, but the effect of environmental covariates on these models has not previously been considered. An existing Bayesian population model fitted to CS beluga whale aerial survey data from 1990 to 2017 and harvest data from 1960 to 2017 was modified to include sea ice concentration (ICE) and sea surface temperature (SST). ICE and SST were extracted for all years from the CS study area in March and August, respectively, and incorporated into the state process component of the state-space model. The model resulted in a 2018 population estimate of 1245 (95% credible interval [CI] 564-2715) whales and an initial population estimate of 5147 (95% CI 1667-8779). Determining sustainable harvest by calculating the probability of population decline estimated 30% probability of decline after 10 yr with a harvest of ~15 whales annually. Compared to the previous model without environmental covariates, which followed a relatively linear trajectory, our model had more noticeable peaks and troughs in the population trend and wider CIs. The model suggested harvest levels be reduced by ~7 individuals for a management goal with a low risk of decline. The novelty of this approach for beluga whales provides an opportunity for further model development via the addition of various other abiotic and biotic variables related to beluga whale ecology. Article in Journal/Newspaper Baffin Island Baffin Beluga Beluga whale Beluga* Cumberland Sound Delphinapterus leucas Nunavut Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nunavut Baffin Island Canada Cumberland Sound ENVELOPE(-66.014,-66.014,65.334,65.334) Endangered Species Research 48 51 65 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 |
spellingShingle |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 BA Biddlecombe CA Watt Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
topic_facet |
Zoology QL1-991 Botany QK1-989 |
description |
The Cumberland Sound (CS) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population inhabits CS on eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, and is listed as threatened under the Canadian Species at Risk Act. The population dynamics of CS beluga whales have been modelled in the past, but the effect of environmental covariates on these models has not previously been considered. An existing Bayesian population model fitted to CS beluga whale aerial survey data from 1990 to 2017 and harvest data from 1960 to 2017 was modified to include sea ice concentration (ICE) and sea surface temperature (SST). ICE and SST were extracted for all years from the CS study area in March and August, respectively, and incorporated into the state process component of the state-space model. The model resulted in a 2018 population estimate of 1245 (95% credible interval [CI] 564-2715) whales and an initial population estimate of 5147 (95% CI 1667-8779). Determining sustainable harvest by calculating the probability of population decline estimated 30% probability of decline after 10 yr with a harvest of ~15 whales annually. Compared to the previous model without environmental covariates, which followed a relatively linear trajectory, our model had more noticeable peaks and troughs in the population trend and wider CIs. The model suggested harvest levels be reduced by ~7 individuals for a management goal with a low risk of decline. The novelty of this approach for beluga whales provides an opportunity for further model development via the addition of various other abiotic and biotic variables related to beluga whale ecology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
BA Biddlecombe CA Watt |
author_facet |
BA Biddlecombe CA Watt |
author_sort |
BA Biddlecombe |
title |
Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
title_short |
Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
title_full |
Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
title_fullStr |
Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population |
title_sort |
incorporating environmental covariates into a bayesian stock production model for the endangered cumberland sound beluga population |
publisher |
Inter-Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01186 https://doaj.org/article/8ce1ed28dd6348db9fb91cd041ca832f |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-66.014,-66.014,65.334,65.334) |
geographic |
Nunavut Baffin Island Canada Cumberland Sound |
geographic_facet |
Nunavut Baffin Island Canada Cumberland Sound |
genre |
Baffin Island Baffin Beluga Beluga whale Beluga* Cumberland Sound Delphinapterus leucas Nunavut Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Baffin Island Baffin Beluga Beluga whale Beluga* Cumberland Sound Delphinapterus leucas Nunavut Sea ice |
op_source |
Endangered Species Research, Vol 48, Pp 51-65 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/esr/v48/p51-65/ https://doaj.org/toc/1863-5407 https://doaj.org/toc/1613-4796 1863-5407 1613-4796 doi:10.3354/esr01186 https://doaj.org/article/8ce1ed28dd6348db9fb91cd041ca832f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01186 |
container_title |
Endangered Species Research |
container_volume |
48 |
container_start_page |
51 |
op_container_end_page |
65 |
_version_ |
1766365793190150144 |