Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico.

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Main Authors: Donal Bisanzio, Felipe Dzul-Manzanilla, Hector Gomez-Dantés, Norma Pavia-Ruz, Thomas J Hladish, Audrey Lenhart, Jorge Palacio-Vargas, Jesus F González Roldan, Fabian Correa-Morales, Gustavo Sánchez-Tejeda, Pablo Kuri Morales, Pablo Manrique-Saide, Ira M Longini, M Elizabeth Halloran, Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2018
Subjects:
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Arctic
Kendall
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298
https://doaj.org/article/8ccc2d0c95ae47d3acdf8c458e85108f
Description
Summary:Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008-2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.

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