Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions
We test a hypothesis that the signal-to-noise ratio of decadal forecasts improves with larger scales and can be utilised through model output statistics (MOS) involving empirical-statistical downscaling and dependencies to large-scale conditions. Here, we used MOS applied to an ensemble of decadal f...
Published in: | Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Stockholm University Press
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/article/8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 2023-05-15T17:31:33+02:00 Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions Rasmus Benestad Louis-Philippe Caron Kajsa Parding Maialen Iturbide Jose Manuel Gutierrez Llorente Abdelkader Mezghani Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/article/8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 EN eng Stockholm University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/article/8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 71, Iss 1 (2019) model output statistics downscaling decadal predictions common eofs Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 2022-12-30T21:28:51Z We test a hypothesis that the signal-to-noise ratio of decadal forecasts improves with larger scales and can be utilised through model output statistics (MOS) involving empirical-statistical downscaling and dependencies to large-scale conditions. Here, we used MOS applied to an ensemble of decadal forecasts to predict local wet-day frequency, the wet-day mean precipitation, and the mean temperature for one to nine year long intervals of forecasts with a one year lead time. Our study involved a set of decadal forecasts over the 1961–2011 period, based on a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model that was downscaled and analysed for the North Atlantic region. The MOS for the decadal forecasts failed to identify aspects that were associated with higher skill for temperature and precipitation over Europe on time scales shorter than five years. A likely explanation for not enhancing skillful parts of the forecasts was that the raw model output had low skill for the general large-scale atmospheric circulation. This was particularly true for the wet-day frequency over Europe, which had a strong connection to the mean sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the North Atlantic. There was a weak connection between large-scale maritime surface temperature anomalies and local precipitation and temperature variability over the European continent. The decadal forecasts for time scale of nine years and longer, on the other hand, exhibited moderate skill. The dependency between temporal and spatial scales was found to differ for the temperature and the mean SLP anomalies, but we found little indication that the decadal predictions for anomalies with large-scale regional extent were associated higher skill than for more local patterns in these forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 71 1 1652882 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
model output statistics downscaling decadal predictions common eofs Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
model output statistics downscaling decadal predictions common eofs Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Rasmus Benestad Louis-Philippe Caron Kajsa Parding Maialen Iturbide Jose Manuel Gutierrez Llorente Abdelkader Mezghani Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
topic_facet |
model output statistics downscaling decadal predictions common eofs Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
We test a hypothesis that the signal-to-noise ratio of decadal forecasts improves with larger scales and can be utilised through model output statistics (MOS) involving empirical-statistical downscaling and dependencies to large-scale conditions. Here, we used MOS applied to an ensemble of decadal forecasts to predict local wet-day frequency, the wet-day mean precipitation, and the mean temperature for one to nine year long intervals of forecasts with a one year lead time. Our study involved a set of decadal forecasts over the 1961–2011 period, based on a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model that was downscaled and analysed for the North Atlantic region. The MOS for the decadal forecasts failed to identify aspects that were associated with higher skill for temperature and precipitation over Europe on time scales shorter than five years. A likely explanation for not enhancing skillful parts of the forecasts was that the raw model output had low skill for the general large-scale atmospheric circulation. This was particularly true for the wet-day frequency over Europe, which had a strong connection to the mean sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the North Atlantic. There was a weak connection between large-scale maritime surface temperature anomalies and local precipitation and temperature variability over the European continent. The decadal forecasts for time scale of nine years and longer, on the other hand, exhibited moderate skill. The dependency between temporal and spatial scales was found to differ for the temperature and the mean SLP anomalies, but we found little indication that the decadal predictions for anomalies with large-scale regional extent were associated higher skill than for more local patterns in these forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rasmus Benestad Louis-Philippe Caron Kajsa Parding Maialen Iturbide Jose Manuel Gutierrez Llorente Abdelkader Mezghani Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes |
author_facet |
Rasmus Benestad Louis-Philippe Caron Kajsa Parding Maialen Iturbide Jose Manuel Gutierrez Llorente Abdelkader Mezghani Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes |
author_sort |
Rasmus Benestad |
title |
Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
title_short |
Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
title_full |
Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
title_fullStr |
Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
title_sort |
using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions |
publisher |
Stockholm University Press |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/article/8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 71, Iss 1 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 https://doaj.org/article/8ccabdbcca0e4c65b6aa68d9a99ad580 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
71 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1652882 |
_version_ |
1766129208772263936 |