Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness
Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover observed over the last few decades, a decline that is projected to continue. The prospect of increased human industrial activity in the region, as w...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8c02202e7bd540b1903e846de21127b2 2023-05-15T14:35:36+02:00 Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness E. W. Blockley K. A. Peterson 2018-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 https://doaj.org/article/8c02202e7bd540b1903e846de21127b2 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3419/2018/tc-12-3419-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/8c02202e7bd540b1903e846de21127b2 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3419-3438 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 2022-12-31T11:45:26Z Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover observed over the last few decades, a decline that is projected to continue. The prospect of increased human industrial activity in the region, as well as scientific interest in the predictability of sea ice, provides important motivation for understanding, and improving, the skill of Arctic predictions. Several operational forecasting centres now routinely produce seasonal predictions of sea-ice cover using coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice models. Although assimilation of sea-ice concentration into these systems is commonplace, sea-ice thickness observations, being much less mature, are typically not assimilated. However, many studies suggest that initialization of winter sea-ice thickness could lead to improved prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Here, for the first time, we directly assess the impact of winter sea-ice thickness initialization on the skill of summer seasonal predictions by assimilating CryoSat-2 thickness data into the Met Office's coupled seasonal prediction system (GloSea). We show a significant improvement in predictive skill of Arctic sea-ice extent and ice-edge location for forecasts of September Arctic sea ice made from the beginning of the melt season. The improvements in sea-ice cover lead to further improvement of near-surface air temperature and pressure fields across the region. A clear relationship between modelled winter thickness biases and summer extent errors is identified which supports the theory that Arctic winter thickness provides some predictive capability for summer ice extent, and further highlights the importance that modelled winter thickness biases can have on the evolution of forecast errors through the melt season. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 12 11 3419 3438 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. W. Blockley K. A. Peterson Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover observed over the last few decades, a decline that is projected to continue. The prospect of increased human industrial activity in the region, as well as scientific interest in the predictability of sea ice, provides important motivation for understanding, and improving, the skill of Arctic predictions. Several operational forecasting centres now routinely produce seasonal predictions of sea-ice cover using coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice models. Although assimilation of sea-ice concentration into these systems is commonplace, sea-ice thickness observations, being much less mature, are typically not assimilated. However, many studies suggest that initialization of winter sea-ice thickness could lead to improved prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Here, for the first time, we directly assess the impact of winter sea-ice thickness initialization on the skill of summer seasonal predictions by assimilating CryoSat-2 thickness data into the Met Office's coupled seasonal prediction system (GloSea). We show a significant improvement in predictive skill of Arctic sea-ice extent and ice-edge location for forecasts of September Arctic sea ice made from the beginning of the melt season. The improvements in sea-ice cover lead to further improvement of near-surface air temperature and pressure fields across the region. A clear relationship between modelled winter thickness biases and summer extent errors is identified which supports the theory that Arctic winter thickness provides some predictive capability for summer ice extent, and further highlights the importance that modelled winter thickness biases can have on the evolution of forecast errors through the melt season. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. W. Blockley K. A. Peterson |
author_facet |
E. W. Blockley K. A. Peterson |
author_sort |
E. W. Blockley |
title |
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
title_short |
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
title_full |
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
title_fullStr |
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness |
title_sort |
improving met office seasonal predictions of arctic sea ice using assimilation of cryosat-2 thickness |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 https://doaj.org/article/8c02202e7bd540b1903e846de21127b2 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3419-3438 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3419/2018/tc-12-3419-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/8c02202e7bd540b1903e846de21127b2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3419 |
op_container_end_page |
3438 |
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1766308388624400384 |