The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models
Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate res...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.719024 https://doaj.org/article/8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 2023-05-15T13:10:36+02:00 The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.719024 https://doaj.org/article/8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.719024/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.719024 https://doaj.org/article/8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021) arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) Science Q article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.719024 2022-12-31T05:57:06Z Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Frontiers in Earth Science 9 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) Science Q |
spellingShingle |
arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) Science Q Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
topic_facet |
arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) Science Q |
description |
Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum |
author_facet |
Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum |
author_sort |
Marika M. Holland |
title |
The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
title_short |
The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
title_full |
The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
title_fullStr |
The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
title_sort |
emergence and transient nature of arctic amplification in coupled climate models |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.719024 https://doaj.org/article/8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.719024/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.719024 https://doaj.org/article/8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.719024 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
9 |
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1766235759986081792 |