Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8b07d1ecab8f432a828d765acfe288bf 2023-09-05T13:15:20+02:00 Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 S Jevrejeva A Grinsted J C Moore 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 https://doaj.org/article/8b07d1ecab8f432a828d765acfe288bf EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8b07d1ecab8f432a828d765acfe288bf Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 10, p 104008 (2014) sea level rise high end projections climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 2023-08-13T00:37:28Z We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 9 10 104008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea level rise high end projections climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
sea level rise high end projections climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 S Jevrejeva A Grinsted J C Moore Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
topic_facet |
sea level rise high end projections climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S Jevrejeva A Grinsted J C Moore |
author_facet |
S Jevrejeva A Grinsted J C Moore |
author_sort |
S Jevrejeva |
title |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_short |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_full |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_sort |
upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 https://doaj.org/article/8b07d1ecab8f432a828d765acfe288bf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 10, p 104008 (2014) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/8b07d1ecab8f432a828d765acfe288bf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104008 |
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1776197135617753088 |