Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics
Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regardin...
Published in: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055 https://doaj.org/article/8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a 2023-05-15T15:00:41+02:00 Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics Anne M. Hofmeister James M. Seckler Genevieve M. Criss 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055 https://doaj.org/article/8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/6/3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 doi:10.3390/ijerph18063055 1660-4601 1661-7827 https://doaj.org/article/8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 3055, p 3055 (2021) COVID-19 historic influenzas permafrost melting pandemic emergence climate and disease ultraviolet immunosuppression Medicine R article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055 2022-12-31T09:25:31Z Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18 6 3055 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
COVID-19 historic influenzas permafrost melting pandemic emergence climate and disease ultraviolet immunosuppression Medicine R |
spellingShingle |
COVID-19 historic influenzas permafrost melting pandemic emergence climate and disease ultraviolet immunosuppression Medicine R Anne M. Hofmeister James M. Seckler Genevieve M. Criss Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
topic_facet |
COVID-19 historic influenzas permafrost melting pandemic emergence climate and disease ultraviolet immunosuppression Medicine R |
description |
Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anne M. Hofmeister James M. Seckler Genevieve M. Criss |
author_facet |
Anne M. Hofmeister James M. Seckler Genevieve M. Criss |
author_sort |
Anne M. Hofmeister |
title |
Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
title_short |
Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
title_full |
Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
title_fullStr |
Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics |
title_sort |
possible roles of permafrost melting, atmospheric transport, and solar irradiance in the development of major coronavirus and influenza pandemics |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055 https://doaj.org/article/8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming permafrost |
op_source |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 3055, p 3055 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/6/3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 doi:10.3390/ijerph18063055 1660-4601 1661-7827 https://doaj.org/article/8ae9f08d92ef40399246ad077e0e4a3a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055 |
container_title |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
3055 |
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1766332771432660992 |